On Thu, 13 Sep 2007 22:50:33 GMT, Marty Shapiro
wrote:



Fractional jets are here and they are starting to siphon some business
away from the airlines. The VLJ's aren't here yet. The projections for
the VLJ market, if correct, will put a severe dent in the airline's premium
passenger traffic. Take a trip of say 1,000 miles or so. You can go to
your nearby local airport and get a VLJ to fly direct to a nearby local
airport at your destination. No requirement to be at the airport 2 hours
before departure, no restrictions on liquids in your carry-on baggage, no
TSA, no long drive to/from the airport served by the major, no dealing with
connections at the hub, and the VLJ air taxi comes/goes on your schedule,
not the airline's. The airlines can't do any of this and that's why they
are terrified. The only way they can compete is to make it prohibatively
expensive to fly on a VLJ.

What you say is true, except I don't know of any majors looking at
serving this market. The closest I know of are regional jets which
only have economy seats. At least the ones I know. So why would it
terrify them? CO, for example, has long de-emphasized this market as
unprofitable and has concentrate on expanding internationally. All
the others are doing the same. They aren't terrified, they are just
looking at different markets where these guys can't compete.


Look at an area like White Plains, NY with all the corporate HQs
there. How many of the business / first class passengers would rather go
to HPN and fly directly to their destination vs. having to drive to LGA,
JFK, or EWR? Only the top executives get the company jet, the others need
to go via airlines. If they had VLJ service at a cost of a first class
ticket, would they bother to go via the major?

They presumably wouldn't which is why the majors are doing what I
described above. Two different markets entirely.


How many first or business class tickets are really sold? I've been
on flights where the first class cabin was full but most passengers were
there on a mileage or frequent flyer upgrades. Those passengers who did
pay full fare would be more than happy to fly on a VLJ and avoid the
airline hassle completly, and those are the passengers the airlines are
worried about.

No they're not for the reasons I give above. There are still plenty
of full paying premium passengers which the majors are competing for,
not these guys.


I know one person who always flies first class and he said he would
gladly pay 20% more for the convenience of a VLJ. And he even dislikes
small airplanes! The airlines can't compete with the VLJ. They know it.
So they need a way to escalate the costs for the VLJ so high that people
will not go to it, and the fee system is their solution.

Sorry two different markets, as I said.