On 31 Oct, 11:32, 1LK wrote:
On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian wrote:
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a

79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...

Ian

Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.

So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.

Ian