How dangerous is soaring?
On Oct 31, 7:11 pm, 1LK wrote:
Not exactly. The odds ratio applies to any point in time; it's
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.
Think of it like tossing a coin to see whether you live. The
probability
of each toss being "heads" is 0.5, and is independent of the previous
results.
To stay alive for a week, you have to toss "heads" 7 times in a row,
and the probability of that is 0.5 ^ 7 = 0.078125 = 1 in 128
Personally, I hope you have more than a 0.9875 ^ 365 chance of
being alive in a year. (i.e. 0.01014 or 1 in 98).
Of course, if you are still alive in a year, there would be the same
chance (0.9875) that you would be alive in a year and a day.
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