On Nov 1, 2:11 pm, 1LK wrote:
The calculation which yields the 80/1 is only true for the single
instance;

Single instance of what? If it is the "single instance of a day",
then the calculations are correct.

my odds of being here next year are another thing entirely.
For that you need to do mortality computations.

To stay alive for a week, you have to toss "heads" 7 times in a row,
and the probability of that is 0.5 ^ 7 = 0.078125 = 1 in 128

It's not binary, it's multifactorial.

I don't understand: what do you mean by "it" and "multifactorial"?
Binary? Well yes, flipping a coin is binary; that's why I
subsequently
used your figures (that you didn't bother to include).

It might help if you could explain the reasons (based on an
equivalent
example, if you prefer) why you believe that the calculations are
wrong.
Examples I can think of are
- it is not a 1.25% chance of dying on every day, only on some days
- each day shouldn't be treated as independent from the preceding
days (but that doesn't fit with your original statement)

Anyway, I am glad that your mortality isn't as imminent as it
at first appeared.