On Dec 21, 4:45 am, Stealth Pilot
wrote:

squeezing past the rings probably contributes a millionth of one
poofteenth of a percent to the problem.
when the crankcase cools there is moist external air sucked into the
cavity of the case through the crankcase breather. the moisture
condenses onto the cold internal surfaces of the engine.
can you please factor that into the alchemy above? it probably does
the damage occurring between the poofteenth of your scenario and the
100%.

Nope. We have taken rocker covers off engines immediately
after a runup of a brand-new engine and found copious amounts of water
in them. The blowby of any cold engine is significant. If we briefly
run up an engine that has sat all night in a heated hangar and in our
very dry winter climate, we will find water on the dipstick every
time, with the engine at any point in its life. And the dipstick was
dry beforehand.
We operate on the western Canadian prairies where the air is
drier that where I grew up in south-central BC, which is the northern
tip of the Sonora Desert. We get little rain and snow here. Temps
reach -40C, more typically -20C, no fog and clear skies most of the
winter. It's REALLY dry, and any air sucked into these engines after
shutdown doesn't have enough moisture to make a couple of tears.

Dan