As a general response to you and others whom I haven't answered
directly, I'll ask that you refer to previous posts for answers to many of
your questions. That is, if you read the entire thread, you'll find that
I've already addressed many of your questions.

Wasted shots are wasted shots. You only have a finite weapon load: when
it's gone, you're a helpless flying target.

I wouldn't call a shot that puts you in the driver's seat wasted.

Warming up a missile, providing it with a firing solution, and getting
it off the rail is not an instantaneous process. While quicker than it
used to be, you often still need time to get thermal batteries fired and
warmed up, seekers pointing in the right direction, and data messages
passed to and fro.

You'd have the same problem when making high-speed slashing passes, so
your point is moot.

while the pilot fumbles
for the manual override, because his radar is actually tracking the
target's towed decoy.

Towed decoy is not for IR as far as I know (and most IR missiles have
robust enough AI to defeat flares), and in any case, I have no knowledge of
operational decoys, especially those suitable to a high-g dogfight (I'd love
to hear about any such decoys if they exist).

He
can see it, and he'd have to be an idiot, insanely good, and/or a
Kamikaze
to return fire instead of immediately initiating a break turn.
His evasion sequence might well include a
shot back on the same "no point dying with missiles on the rails"
principle.

I would classify anyone who decided to continue maneuvering for a shot
before dodging a missile en route as an idiot, insanely good, and/or a
Kamikaze.

Bear in mind that one response to your shot is to turn tail and run; at
longer ranges it's quite possible to outdistance a missile shot.

If he runs from your missile, you have a nice easy tail shot for a
MRAAM. Sweet!

Even if you
bluff a shot a little outside of your parameters, can HE judge whether it
has sufficient energy? Not very likely (and that'd be one HECK of a
gamble!).
But then, at those ranges the enemy has more time to think over his
countermeasures (aided by your wilful reduction in weapon lethality) and
to plan his counterattack.

What ranges? In a dogfight the ranges allow more time to think???

Meanwhile, how many missiles did you start with? You've now got at least
one less, in exchange for a shot with poor Pk. The US may have a
seemingly-bottomless supply of weapons, but most nations do not.

Oh COME ON. Conserve missiles for later flights? I don't think so!
I'd LOVE to hear a general tell their soldiers not to make less than 100%
shots on the enemy so that the missiles can be saved for later pilots! As
for the plane in question, it has at least one more IR missile, perhaps 3
more. Given the positional advantage gained by the enemy having to avoid
your first shot, you can now take your time with the second shot.

Taking a shot of opportunity is thoroughly sensible. Wasting energy to
take a shot at a poor target... is not.

The idea is to take a shot to create an opportunity. A crude analogy
would be throwing a low-percetange jab to set up a hook (assuming that your
jab was credible enough that the opponent had to duck/block it).


You can
regain all the energy you like while he's breaking away from your
missile(s).
No, you can't: I think you've got an excessive optimism about
acceleration rates.

His loss of energy in his evasive break is probably greater than your
gain of energy through worry-free unloaded acceleration. Bear in mind I'm
talking about the newest generation of fighters that have superb t-w ratios
and excellent acceleration.
I think that address all the unique questions you've asked. BVR, the
likelihood of different scenarios, wingmen, etc. were addressed in previous
posts. Cheers,

Tony