"Phil J" wrote in message
...
On Apr 5, 3:32 am, buttman wrote:

I'm not an economist, but it seems with the increase in demand for
alternatively fueled cars, (hybrids, hydrogen powered, etc), the
demand for fuel will go way down, bring the price down with it.
Additionally, once the auto industry completely converts to hydrogen
(or whatever fuel type comes out on top), that technology will trickle
into aircraft engines.

The real problem is that it will only get worse before it gets better.
Unless something unforeseen happens, the price will only go up for at
least a few more years until it starts dropping again. The real
question is will the hobby survive until energy prices drop back down?

That is what happened in the 70s. We decreased our demand, and the
price of oil eventually went down. The problem is, the world
situation is different now than it was back then. Now we have China
and India ramping up demand. Even if we significantly decrease our
demand, the worldwide demand for oil is only going to continue to go
up. And that means that the only way the price will ever go down is
if the supply goes up. As I understand it, right now the supply is
bottlenecked by the lack of refining capacity. The refineries are
running at nearly 100% capacity. And there doesn't seem to be much of
a push by the oil companies to build more refineries. Given the
increase in demand, I would think that will change.

By the way, take a look at this list. This is the list of countries
that supply oil to the United States, in descending order by oil
volume. If you count Algeria, there are only three Middle Eastern
countries on the list! Canada actually has more known reserves of oil
than Saudi Arabia. But the oil is in the form of oil shale, which is
more expensive to extract and refine.

Just a small nitpick, the Canadian non-conventional oil is in the form of
oil-sand / tar-sand. IIRC oil shale is located under Colorado and is
reported to contain more oil than the mid east or Canada. IIRC the Colorado
oil shale is deeper underground than the Canadian tar-sand but Canada is now
developing & using SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) to recover
deposits that are too deep for economical open pit extraction. I suspect
that this technology could be applied in Colorado if there was the will to
develop these deposits. IIRC tar-sand production cost is ~$60 and suspect
that Colorado oil shale woild be similar but YMMV. We can only speculate as
to the motives that prefer war to domestic development.

Anyway, the point I am really
making is there is still plenty of oil in the ground to satisfy
demand. The real problem is that there isn't enough refining
capacity.

1. Canada
2. Mexico
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Venezuela
5. Nigeria
6. Angola
7. Iraq
8. Algeria
9. United Kingdom
10. Brazil


Phil