On 24 Dec 2003 11:52:09 GMT, Emmanuel.Gustin wrote:
Tank Fixer wrote:

: What was Libya's incentive to negotiate and submit to inspections ?

This may not be the correct view: Lybia has offered to
accept inspections before. What's new is that Bush and
Blair accepted the Lybian proposals: Probably mainly
because they needed a success very much, although of
course better terms may have been negotiated now.

As for Khaddafi's motives, the economy of the country
is in ruins after years of sanctions; the oil industry
doesn't function any more.

Is that true? My understanding is that UK/European sanctions were
removed years ago. European couintries, particularly the UK, have a
lot of experience in oil extraction.

This situation is a threat
to the existence of the regime -- there has already
been an islamist rebellion -- and ultimately to the
survival of the "great guide" himself. This is a very
good time for Khadaffi to trade in an expensive and
probably useless WMD programme for an economic boost
and (horresco referens) the opportunity to be praised
as a "great statesman" by western leaders.

Sounds plausible.

Note that this is not a new development; Gaddafi has been trying to
get in the West's good books for a number of years, c.f. his payment
of reparations for Lockerbie and that other airplane incident
(whose details I forget right now).

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