Bill Phillips wrote in message ...

I did a quick search on Germany+war+production.

This is the first hit I got:

http://www.usaaf.net/surveys/eto/ebs4.htm

It indicates that German Industry has so much slack in it that bombing had
little effect.

This is correct to mid 1944, the bombers could not compete with
Speer undoing the inefficiencies in the German economy. It was
also a fact the effect of the bombers helped Speer push through
the changes. The main effect of the bombing was military, the
cost of the air raid warning and protection system, the deployment
of so many fighters and flak guns in Germany, the losses to the day
fighters in particular in early 1944.

The Air Forces are left with "production would have gone up further"
rather than "production went down" until mid 1944, not very convincing.


One reason the average Luftwaffe day fighter had no performance
improvement between early 1942 and mid 1944 was the need
for numbers. The day fighters went from being generally superior
to generally inferior to the allied day fighters.

Psychologically bombing may have been counter productive, it made us appear
inhuman and therefore caused the Germans to fight longer and harder.

The "morale" issue is complicated, yes at times it made people more
productive, in others less, similar for "fighting attitude".

True Germany was crumbling at the end but that was as a result of many
effects.

The combination of loss of resources and the bombing. It took around
9 months for iron ore to end up as steel in a weapon, similar for other
raw materials, so much of the production loss in late 1944 seems to
be mainly bombing. However this bombing includes the effects of the
medium, light and fighter bombers on the German transport system,
not just the heavies.

The other thing to note is the halfway point for the 8th Air Force bombs
dropped on Germany is around mid November 1944, (less than 1/3 had
been dropped by the end of August 1944), Bomber Command mid point
was around early October 1944 it was very end loaded campaign.

The amount of tonnage and the speed of delivery meant the final months
of the war the bombing was more effective, overloading the air raid repair
abilities.

IMHO the only useful thing bombers did was draw the Luftwaffe out so that
the P51s could shoot them down.


The loss of oil products helped, the lack of nitrogen and methanol
meant the Germans had to use more and more inert fillings in
shells. The need to defend Germany left less and less to control the
airspace over the armies or run bombing operations in the allied rear.

No one had ever tried this type of bombing before, and the Germans
did not volunteer raid reports, so it took a long time to learn what
worked.

Geoffrey Sinclair
Remove the nb for email.