On May 10, 7:55*pm, "Ken S. Tucker" wrote:
On May 10, 3:42 pm, "Paul J. Adam"

wrote:
Ken S. Tucker wrote:
On May 10, 12:23 pm, "Keith Willshaw"
wrote:
standards) to search, select, aim and fire.
And be shot down by a Standard 2 missile - oops

Maybe 80% of the time, but you forget PROBABILTY.

I'm well acquainted with PROBABILITY. This is why you do
"shoot-look-shoot" - and suddenly your threatening track now only has a
4% chance of surviving. (And this assumes that you only have time for
one follow up) Note that any soft-kill countermeasures still get to play
with the surviving threat seekers

Hmm, I was generous enabling the 80%.
Paul you pushed to 96%...

You (Paul & Keith) are pushin' our BS detector off scale!!!
Have either of you ever designed and fired a missile?

Who do you mean by "our"? What they're saying is perfectly valid, and
probably even understating the actual use. Operationally, I would
expect a USN carrier group's guided missile ships to loft multiples
EACH if an inbound ballistic was detected. What does the Pk for a half-
dozen SM-3 guiding on a target that's mid-apex and not maneuvering
look like? And assuming that nothing even gets a mission kill on the
target, you're still tracking it and the battle group's got dozens
more SM-3 in the cells ready to go.