On May 11, 7:51 am, Jeb in Richmond wrote:
On May 10, 7:55 pm, "Ken S. Tucker" wrote:



On May 10, 3:42 pm, "Paul J. Adam"

wrote:
Ken S. Tucker wrote:
On May 10, 12:23 pm, "Keith Willshaw"
wrote:
standards) to search, select, aim and fire.
And be shot down by a Standard 2 missile - oops

Maybe 80% of the time, but you forget PROBABILTY.

I'm well acquainted with PROBABILITY. This is why you do
"shoot-look-shoot" - and suddenly your threatening track now only has a
4% chance of surviving. (And this assumes that you only have time for
one follow up) Note that any soft-kill countermeasures still get to play
with the surviving threat seekers

Hmm, I was generous enabling the 80%.
Paul you pushed to 96%...

You (Paul & Keith) are pushin' our BS detector off scale!!!
Have either of you ever designed and fired a missile?

Who do you mean by "our"? What they're saying is perfectly valid, and
probably even understating the actual use. Operationally, I would
expect a USN carrier group's guided missile ships to loft multiples
EACH if an inbound ballistic was detected. What does the Pk for a half-
dozen SM-3 guiding on a target that's mid-apex and not maneuvering
look like? And assuming that nothing even gets a mission kill on the
target, you're still tracking it and the battle group's got dozens
more SM-3 in the cells ready to go.

Russia can do it easily, and here's China...
http://www.janes.com/defence/naval_f...0118_1_n.shtml

I'm afraid that looking ahead 1 decade, our CVN's
could be vulnerable. One cheap IRBM can carry
10 (in the 3rd stage) cheap guided missiles inbound,
steering subsonically even using only gravity for thrust.

1st stage, solid, cheap, coarse fin guidance.

2nd stage, solid, cheap, minor gimbal guidance.
we're now in space, ballistic, sub-orbital.

3rd stage, solid, advanced refined guidance,
final course set, 10 missiles separate.

Re-entry, each missile deploys speed-brakes using
atmosphere on inertial guidance, for initial targeting.

At 80k, subsonic, speed brakes in conjuction with
gliding fins (smart bomb style) adjust course to
image of locked on target, velocity ~ 1000'/sec.

At 60k, 1 minute to target, image refinement
improving, course corrections occuring.

At 10k, selection of strike location on selected
target is locked in. Last Fail-Safe is Go.

At Ok, penetration at assigned vulnerable location
with 100# of ordinance, velocity 900'/sec.

0+2 seconds, the Control Tower and Bridge are
decommisioned, by 2 inbounds.

Other targeted areas are the reactors, fuel, ammo
and the head.

Sorry I adopted a sort of drama style of writing,
but I think it's reasonable to try to understand
the risks to our navy.
Ken