On Jul 23, 11:15*am, Steve Koerner wrote:
If that gun has 1,000,000 chambers but only one bullet, you spin it for
randomness, and you pull the trigger once an hour while in flight,

OK, Jim. *I don't know where you got your numbers but lets run them
out...

Roughly, there is perhaps 5000 glider pilots in the US doing say 50
hours per year. * So your million to one proposition might not be so
hot if the statistical result is a collision with an airliner every
four years. * We need to get into the ten million to one zone or
better and that is probably what widespread use of transponder will
accomplish. * Thank you for helping me make my point.

Maybe statement like "playing Russian roulette" help remind pilot's of
the dangers of flying gliders without transponders in areas of high
density airline/fast-jet and other traffic. And most sensible folks
can understand while a very serious issue (especially if it involves
the lives of an airliner full of passengers) that the statement is
hyperbole.

Taking the Reno area alone we've had one mid-air collision with a fast
jet in the last several years, and at least one close indent with an
airliner and likely some other situations where things got close than
they should have. So any guesses what the currently demonstrated
number of mid-air collisions or close call are per glider-op or hour
of flying in that area is? What is know is that installing
transponders in gliders for compatibility with TCAS that effectively
almost all these airliners and fast jets are equipped would be a
significant safety net to help avoid the scary scenario of such a mid-
air collision.

And while on this, I prefer Cindy Brickner's "playing volleyball on
the freeway" as alternate description to "playing Russian roulette" to
describe gliders flying in high traffic density areas like in the
Carson Valley area around Reno. That amusing on face value description
at least emphasizes doing a fun activity in a risky place. Neither
description quite captures the risks to those passengers in the
airliners.

Darryl