On 10/24/2010 1:03 PM, Darryl Ramm wrote:
On Oct 24, 7:51 am, Mike
wrote:
On 10/24/2010 8:51 AM, Martin Gregorie wrote: On Sat, 23 Oct 2010 19:03:15 -0400, Mike Schumann wrote:

Over what period of time?

All at once, presumably. Just now (5:45 AM PDT) I looked at Flight Radar
24http://www.flightradar24.com/and saw 4 aircraft near Portland and 3
near LA.

So much for the assertion that ADS-B is far off into the future.

--
Mike Schumann

And a few airliners flying around today with 1090ES data-out (and not
integrated with most ATC services yet) somehow changes what has been
said here by anybody? Its exactly consistent.

ADS-B is coming. I've stated the situation as best as I know it with
ADS-B adoption. If you can add anything cogent to that discussion
speak up.

You are looking at airliners. As I've said here already - airliners
out of Europe are very likely to have 1090ES data-out. New airliners
in the USA are very likely to have 1090ES data-out. Some airlines and
freight carriers are likely to adopt earlier because they start to see
benefits like in-trail separation and sequencing or just because they
are interested in exploring the capability to do that in future. On
the other hand for GA and gliders there is very little incentive to
adopt ADS-B data-out, its expensive and the recent STC requirement is
a significant barrier. Significant enough that I suspect it just
stopped GA ADS-B upgrades cold for a while (outside locations where
there is a clear benefit like GOMEX and a oil industry helicopter
fleet that can pay for it). And we are still a few years away from
extensive ground station coverage with full ADS-B services (full roll
out of critical services at TRACON/approach locations, not just the
enroute essential services rolling out now in most places). And even
when there service is fully rolled out there it looks like there will
be poor coverage in many important glider locations. So all we can say
is (unless the wheels fall off ADS-B) there will be widespread
carriage of ADS-B data-out by 2020. Where widespread means all the big
guys and installed at least in GA aircraft that fly where they require
transponders today. And all the big guys will be 1090ES data-out and
what GA adopts we'll have to wait and see (but I expect much more
1090ES data-out than the FAA seemed to ever expect).

I assume you have the ability to find out what current UAT adoption is
around some locations. That would be interesting to know.

Nobody I can find from AOPA, NBAA, avionics industry organizations
etc. seems to have any predictions for ADS-B fleet adoption rates. I
would certainly not assume aggressive roll-out of ADS-B data-out in GA
aircraft--because of the current STC hurdle, the costs and lack of
benefits (that AOPA and EAA and others are pretty clear of in their
criticisms of ADS-B).

And back to gliders... there seems no way that certified gliders can
install any ADS-B data-out today because of the lack of STC approval.
So its largely academic right now for many of us if a product is FCC
and TSO approved if there is no STC for installation on type. If you
want to keep saying that certain UAT transceivers are available now
you need to qualify that would be for experimental gliders only or let
us know who is working on the install STC and for what gliders.

Darryl
The reality is that the big short term opportunity with ADS-B is TIS-B.
If you are within range of an ADS-B ground station, you will be able
to see not just other ADS-B equipped aircraft, but all other Mode C / S
transponder equipped aircraft that are visible to ATC.

The ground station rollout is moving ahead briskly. I was told that
MSP's ground station is live as of September.

Most people flying gliders near major metropolitan areas will be within
range of an ADS-B ground station. With an ADS-B transceiver (UAT or
1090ES), you will be able to see all airliners, and also most GA
aircraft. In addition, ATC will be able to see you just like you had a
transponder.

This may not help people flying gliders in remote areas at low
altitudes, but it will be a huge plus for most recreational glider pilots.

The challenge is to come up with a low cost ADS-B transceiver package
that is acceptable, both from a cost, size, and functional perspective,
to the glider community. PowerFlarm, if, and only if, it is coupled
with an active ADS-B Out transmitter may be the best approach. There
will surely be others that are aimed at the GA market, which being much
larger than the glider market, will hopefully be more cost effective.

--
Mike Schumann