On Monday, September 24, 2012 1:02:02 PM UTC-4, Tony wrote:
On Monday, September 24, 2012 11:48:37 AM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:


xcskies is still a model based forecast. when the model is broken it doesn't matter if dr. jack or xcskies is interpreting the data it still will be wrong.

Yeah, but...

It seems to me that the models are more often wrong about the parts of the forecast that wouldn't be "fixed" by a local sounding.

There are obviously times (e.g. exact timing of a frontal passage) which can make a difference between a soarable day at the local airport and playing golf, but in such cases a morning sounding wouldn't matter. Similarly, we can have a perfectly good boundary layer in place but a pesky short-wave aloft produces a alto-cu layer just where we didn't need it, killing our heating. Again, that one wouldn't be caught by the local sounding. Same for advection of some slightly drier air that takes our day for 3/8 Cu to blue.

I'd be curious if Dan Gudgel or Walt Rogers would weigh in on this one. Maybe I'll just ask :-)

P3