On Sunday, June 23, 2013 3:35:00 AM UTC-6, Don Johnstone wrote:
At 02:32 23 June 2013, Bill D wrote:



No, they are not. The equivalent of the BFU is the AAIB - if you wish

to

make comparisons you should compare the BFU statistics with the AAIB

figures.

_____________________



What!!? The AAIB doesn't publish glider accident statistics - they leave

that to the BGA. I used the BGA numbers for 2011.



ps an earlier post of yours refers to the "German LBU"; I'm aware of the



LBA, I know of the BFU but your reference to the "German LBU" is

puzzling.



The German LBA is their FAA equivalent. The BFU is the NTSB/AAIB

equivalent. The "LBU" was a typo.



The numbers I used are available for anybody to read and analyze. The

differences are so huge, there's no way to come up with a different

result.

If you disagree, go read them and do your own analysis.



Sorry Bill but your statistics are seriously flawed, In the UK the Air

Cadet organisation carry out nearly 50% of the total winch launches in the

UK in any year. The Air Cadets have not had a fatal or serious injury from

a failed winch launch accident since 1963 and probably before that.

The accidents/incidents reported by the BGA far exceed what would normally

be recorded by a national government source.

You will see that minor crime has decreased in the UK over the years if you

look at statistics. What the statistics do not tell you is that people have

stopped reporting minor crime so of course it has reduced. Same thing

applies to AAIB statistics, they do not record all the minor stuff that the

BGA do.


Don, I used only the BGA numbers. I did not use any AAIB numbers since none are available. I stand by my results until the BGA supplies different numbers. Note carefully that I used the most favorable interpretation for the UK and digging deeper will most likely make things look worse.

For example, the BGA numbers reported were obviously restricted to fatal or serious injury accidents whereas the German BFU and the NTSB reported all of them so the real situation is actually worse for the UK than it appears. I have numbers supporting that contention but I chose not to publish them..

Even giving the UK the benefit of the doubt, the results say the Germans are more than 10 times safer than the Brits on winch launch and the Germans are 7 - 8 times safer on winch launch than US is with aero tow. Play with the numbers if you want, but it's very, very doubtful you can overcome or explain away differences that big.

The solution is fixing the safety problem, not attacking the numbers. I'd start by finding out what the Germans are doing right.