On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 7:54:17 AM UTC-6, Mike the Strike wrote:
On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 6:43:34 AM UTC-7, Bill D wrote:

On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 4:13:44 AM UTC-6, wrote:



Hi Bill















"Terry, thanks for the link but I've had this document for a long time. It says, quote: "The average frequency of winch accidents [in the UK] is 1 in every 13,000 launches." My figures for 2011 show 1 accident every 16,000 launches so you're doing better but nowhere near as good as the Germans at 1 every 180,000 launches. "















"Yes, you have improved but you have a ways to go and denial won't help."















"At this point I'm growing weary of UK denial. Believe what you will.. It's your necks your breaking. "







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I think it’s important to recognise how good the improvement has been in the UK – this is actually an example of how a really good piece of (voluntary, BGA led) safety work has saved lives. If only our regulatory authorities could do this.















As you say, you’ve had the document Terry quoted for a long time, and you’re quoting old numbers, which don’t, I think, tell the recent story.















Following an excellent piece of work looking at the stats and analysing the causes of the acccidents, the BGA ran a “Safe winch launching initiative” starting some seven or so years ago. The 2012 stats show a dramatic and statistically significant improvement.















From http://www.gliding.co.uk/bgainfo/doc...ew2012web..pdf







“In the 7 years of the safe winch launch initiative there have been just 2 fatal/serious injury winch accidents involving a stall or spin. The average 7-year total from 1974-2005 was 17. The total in the preceding 7 years from 1999-2005 was also 17. Stall/spin accidents have historically comprised 80% of fatal or serious injury winch accidents. These have declined dramatically. “















That's a big change. I can't think of many other places where we've achieved anything so significant. But I don’t think anyone is in denial or complacent – the document goes on to say:















“But in the last 7 years we have had two fatal and one serious injury accident from a wing drop and cartwheel.”















For that reason, the focus in improvement this year has been on avoiding or dealing with wing drops in the first stage of launch. (This has been supported by a good training materials and delivered through the instructor cadre).















I think that demonstrates that a focused piece of safety work can deliver really good results - also that the long term averages don't reflect the current situation.















What’s interesting is that the results don’t necessarily last (I guess unsurprisingly). A previous programme in the UK was successful in reducing the number of tug upsets – but we can now see them creeping back up, as new pilots come along who don’t have the same memory of the problem..















Paul







You're shifting the subject from "acidents" to "fatal accidents" to reduce the numbers. Be consistent.



It is pretty certain that fatal accidents will be accurately recorded in all western countries, so this is definitely a good comparison and very interesting that the British and German numbers are quite similar.



The implication is that, while serious injury accidents occur at about the same rate, accidents that do not cause injury have a ten to fifteen times lower incidence in Germany than the rest of the world. I'm very skeptical of this. Perhaps another explanation is that dealing with the German bureaucracy is so complex and difficult that clubs don't report minor incidents to the national body at all?



From my own observations, there are a lot of minor and sometimes not-so-minor accidents that don't make the US database either.



Mike

Lets try different data sets. For consistency, lets use only serious injury or fatal accidents which should be reported in every country.

Go to this site: http://rdd.me/oj4xenk5 and download the BGA "Safe Winching" PDF Look at Figure 2.

For the 17 years ending in 2004 the UK suffered 18 fatal and 36 serious injury accidents. (379 total accidents or one every 8074 launches) If we assume the current 180,000 launches a year, that is one fatal/serious injury accident every 56,667 launches.

Here are reported German accidents in 2011 in which the DAeC reported 900,000 launches. That's 1:180,000.

3X060--11. A Jeans-Astir got launched into a Remos*ultralight which crossed the pass of the glider from right to left. The two a/c's collided in about 1,200ft and both lost their wings resulting in three fatalities.

3X093-11. Spin-in after normal launch - on YouTube.

3X095-11. A Ka-8 was launched on the winch and when the glider's right wing touched the ground and*veered off to the right, the launch-boss gave the command 'All stop', which was followed by the operator.*The the command to continue the launch was given but the line detached from the glider which then stalled over the right wing and impacted the ground out of about 10m.. The pilot was 65 years old.


3X065-11. The glider was launched on the winch but did not gain sufficient altitude and released in about 40m. Instead of landing straight ahead, the pilot tried to reach a field to the left and then forced the glider into a ground-loop. Pilot suffered broken vertebrae; the passenger only minor injuries.


3X080-11. A LS4 was being launched and after 40-50m of ground roll (!!) the gear collapsed. The glider was dragged for another 23m on the belly and finally lifted off. The launch-boss had given the 'All-stop' command which was followed by the operator. The glider did not have enough speed or altitude to recover and landed very hard. The pilot was 85 years old.