Bob, do you actually go through that thought process before *any* activity
as implied? Think "analysis paralysis". Or maybe I misread an attempt to
put a wealth of knowledge and experience which now boils down to "gut
feeling" into words (probably a more accurate assessment).

I have never, and I mean NEVER, approached an aircraft with the thought that
I might die during this flight. If I felt that way, I wouldn't even get in.
On the other hand, after 41 years of flying (about 24 in gliders), I have
come to recognize that there many things well within my skill set that I
just don't do. I don't think, "This might just kill me", though I know at
some subcouscious level that it can. Instead I simply think, "Why - how
will this improve my flight?" and then simply don't bother.

Two glaring examples: The other day at the conclusion of a flight, I
thought of doing a giant barrel roll simply for the joy of seeing the world
upside down. But I didn't. I've done countless rolls in jets, props, and
gliders, and I simply don't "need" to do them any more (not to mention the
fact that aerobatics are prohibited by my flight manual). A few minutes
later a look at my state vector showed that I had just the right position
and altitude to fly a low pass over the hangars, ramp, and runway. Same
thought... "Why?" I don't care about impressing anyone on the ground and I
really don't need the rush any more. I haven't done either of those
meneuvers in over 15 years. Maybe that's why I'm an old fart now.

BTW, have you ever seen the occupants of an aircraft immediately after the
crash? It's enough to make you give up stupid tricks.


"BobW" wrote in message
...
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that.

Snip...

...Worrying about a
glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent
dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is
much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the
odds
of dying in a glider continue to drop.

Here's how *I* put soaring risk into perspective...more accurately, here's
how I put *any* activity's risk into a perspective that works for me,
whether using a sawzall, driving, washing dishes while standing on a
skateboard or whatever...

Risk assessment begins with recognizing risk exists (duh), then defining
the amount of risk (life threatening, limb threatening, get the crap beat
out of me threatening, legal, etc.).

My next step is deciding how I'm going to "inoculate myself" against the
risk. In broadest brush terms, my self-inoculation consists of two
elements: 1) skills education (e.g. flight training, practice, etc.); & 2)
awareness education (e.g. statistical assessment attempts, reading
accident reports, mental assessment, etc.).

One without the other is pretty hopeless...think (say) boxing with one
hand tied behind your back...or entering a gunfight with only a knife in
hand.

Most of us have seen pilots who seem to think being a good/safe pilot is
almost entirely a matter of racking up documentable skills (ratings,
etc.). IMO, skills w/o tempering judgment is scary. Gaining mechanical
skills before or without also gaining a sense that those skills now
provide new chances to kill or injure yourself is equivalent to NOT being
smart enough to know you're dangerous. Think 3-year-old.

So skills without judgment is a non-starter IMO.

As for judgement w/o skills, think trying to teach welding solely on the
basis of book knowledge...perhaps theoretically possible, but definitely a
much tougher task than teaching it after also getting some hands-on
practice. Personally, I'd rather learn welding from an "ivory-tower book
master" than a partially ignorant self-taught dude with UV-induced
cataracts and perpetual sunburn, but that's just me...point being, that
risk awareness and amelioration matters (very much!) to me. That's another
way of saying I probably weight it as MORE important than "mere" skills.

Eventually my thought process evolved to: a) soaring contains sufficient
energy to kill me...every single time I engage in the activity, therefore;
b) it is NOT irrational for me to worry about having a glider accident
(even if I choose to ignore money and embarrassment as additional risk
factors); c) most every general aviation accident report I've read, most
every airport incident and accident I've seen, most every "Oh ****!"
moment I've had as a pilot and motor vehicle operator, have had operator
stupidity (e.g. inattention to the primary task at hand, improper
assessment of my own skills/risks/energies-operating when I step across
the "in-control boundary," etc.) as a (often, THE) major contributor; and
d) the human condition rules out perfection as an option.

So what to do?

For a long time now (decades), my "self-inoculation" has been a serious
attempt to never - and I mean NEVER - have out of my mind that what I'm
doing as a pilot (or driver, or sawzall operator or whatever) can
permanently, "instantly," and easily fatally change my life for the
seriously, irremedially, worse. (I don't fear death, I simply don't wish
it to happen prematurely in a forestallable-via-education-and-skills
sense...because life is so much fun!) That ever-present awareness of my
mortality and the activity's risks I hope (and expect) will combine to
greatly weight the odds *toward* dying a natural, biological death rather
than a physically traumatic, self-inflicted one, because from the
continual awareness should - I hope - flow unremitting skills-based
efforts to properly and safely deal with the physical risks.

In soaring, lack of skills alone can kill. Inattention alone can kill. In
combination, I believe they're exponentially deadly. Ignorance can kill.
Margin-thinning greatly raises risks, or at least the statistically
probable effects of said risks in the event of something undesired
entering the picture. There are LOTS of life-threatening soaring risks,
and a great many more scenario-based ones all capable of ending my life.
That's not intended to be hand-wavingly dramatic; it's merely a factual
statement.

FWIW, I think that attempting to gain solace or an actionable sense of
soaring's risks from " a purely statistically-based assessment" of risks
is some combination of: ostrichian, potentially self-defeating, blinkered,
misguided, wrong-headed thought, etc., etc. That said, the simple fact
that a person is even *considering* such things, is a Great Thing in my
book! I believe that ultimately, such self-directed interest is much more
likely to lead that individual toward "the promised land of
self-inoculation" than NOT considering such things would be. But
statistics alone is - I believe - a woefully limited measure and
assessment of soaring risk. (Hence, the popularity of the statement that
one's chances of dying on the next soaring flight is 50%? Bring that up in
your next statistics class and see what the instructor has to say about it
as a statistical measure, dry chuckle.)

Ultimately, one unarguable statistical measure of one's success (or not)
will be future NTSB reports. In any event...

Rotsa ruck (and have obscene amounts of fun along the way)!!!

Bob W.