On Monday, January 13, 2014 9:03:49 AM UTC-5, wrote:

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

I don't think that it is fair to take that statement out of context. Here is what I said:

summary of text omitted: my chances of dieing from all causes in the next ten years is 19%, see original post if interested in where this number comes from.

son_of_flubber wrote:
It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

The key word that you gloss over is "worry". Worry means to feel anxiety, and feeling anxiety in the air, reduces my performance. The extreme case is to feel anxiety to the point of panic where performance goes through the floor. Anxiety and worry make flying more dangerous.

If you read what I wrote, you will see that I did not decide to disregard the inherent dangers of flying when I decided to stop worrying. I'm saying that you can pay much closer attention to those dangers if you stop feeling anxious (aka stop worrying).

wrote:
You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

At your suggestion I've gone back and reread this article. To use Bruno Gantenbrink's numbers, a world champion has a 10% chance of dieing in a glider (and lower levels of pilots like me have lower mortality rates). My chance of dieing from natural causes and non-flying related accidents in the next ten years is 19%. Even if I were a world champion, 19% is twice 10%. 2:1 (this grossly exaggerates the flying related mortality because we're talking about the next ten years, not an entire flying career). If you understand statistics, this puts the risks of flying in perspective. If you think that statistics are mumbo-jumbo, feel free to disregard my reasoning.

wrote:
Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put it.

From what I've seen, "flying like an idiot" is a clear and present danger that every pilot is capable of falling into. Being honest about the mistakes that we make and changing our habits/style to avoid those same mistakes in the future is good piloting. I know that I'm capable of "flying like an idiot" but I don't worry about it. I just try my best to avoid doing dumb stuff. When I start "flying like an idiot" on a routine basis (it could happen), I will stop flying. At some point, I will start taking an annual flight review because things can change fast.