Well, since it's winter and the sky looks flat today, I'll attempt to show
you how little I know about statistics:

Say the chance of flipping a coin and getting heads is 1:2 or 0.5. The odds
of flipping that coin twice and getting heads twice is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25.
The odds of flipping it three times (same logic) is 0.125. With that in
mind, what are the odds that the fourth flip will be heads?

Do you really think that, since 1 in 10 German champions died in a glider
crash (wasn't that 3 of 32?), that the remainder should quit flying since
they have a 1 in 10 chance of dieing in a glider crash? "Let's see... I've
had 9 flights and survived, so I guess I'll die if I takeoff again."

Why not follow the advice of Alfred E. Newman?

"son_of_flubber" wrote in message
...
On Monday, January 13, 2014 9:03:49 AM UTC-5, wrote:

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

I don't think that it is fair to take that statement out of context. Here
is what I said:

summary of text omitted: my chances of dieing from all causes in the next
ten years is 19%, see original post if interested in where this number comes
from.

son_of_flubber wrote:
It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much
better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of
some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying
about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the
inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen,
but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get
older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

The key word that you gloss over is "worry". Worry means to feel anxiety,
and feeling anxiety in the air, reduces my performance. The extreme case is
to feel anxiety to the point of panic where performance goes through the
floor. Anxiety and worry make flying more dangerous.

If you read what I wrote, you will see that I did not decide to disregard
the inherent dangers of flying when I decided to stop worrying. I'm saying
that you can pay much closer attention to those dangers if you stop feeling
anxious (aka stop worrying).

wrote:
You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

At your suggestion I've gone back and reread this article. To use Bruno
Gantenbrink's numbers, a world champion has a 10% chance of dieing in a
glider (and lower levels of pilots like me have lower mortality rates). My
chance of dieing from natural causes and non-flying related accidents in the
next ten years is 19%. Even if I were a world champion, 19% is twice 10%.
2:1 (this grossly exaggerates the flying related mortality because we're
talking about the next ten years, not an entire flying career). If you
understand statistics, this puts the risks of flying in perspective. If you
think that statistics are mumbo-jumbo, feel free to disregard my reasoning.

wrote:
Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put
it.

From what I've seen, "flying like an idiot" is a clear and present danger
that every pilot is capable of falling into. Being honest about the
mistakes that we make and changing our habits/style to avoid those same
mistakes in the future is good piloting. I know that I'm capable of "flying
like an idiot" but I don't worry about it. I just try my best to avoid
doing dumb stuff. When I start "flying like an idiot" on a routine basis
(it could happen), I will stop flying. At some point, I will start taking
an annual flight review because things can change fast.