On Friday, January 17, 2014 10:38:48 PM UTC-5, Frank Whiteley wrote:
1/1800 just kind of looks about right given what we know about the pilot population.

Thanks for this well-considered number, it completes the picture. To relate it back to the context of my original point...

1/1800 equates to a .18% chance of glider related fatality in each year of flying. Over ten years that would be .18 X 10 = 1.8% cumulative risk over 10 years (say 2%).

Side by side with my original mortality prognosis (individual based on my age and health status):

I have a 19% chance of dieing from all other causes in the next ten years.

I have a 2% chance of dieing in a glider in the next 10 years.

Say a 10:1 chance of dying of natural causes before I die in a glider. I'm good with that, but I will keep looking for ways to improve my odds.