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Old January 18th 14, 06:48 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
C-FFKQ (42)
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Default How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Actually, at .18% chance of death each year, the probability of dying in the next 10 years is:
..0018(1 + .9982 + (.9982)^2 + (.9982)^3 + (.9982)^4 + ... + (.9982)^9)
= 1.7855%

It's the probability of dying in a particular year times the probability of surviving to that year, summed over each of the years.

Sorry, it's the former actuary in me coming out on a cold winter day.

- John