On 11/4/2015 6:16 PM, Christopher Giacomo wrote:
...I think it is pretty obvious
that I made several mistakes throughout the course of this flight that
caused the end result. I would say, given the conditions and clearing trend
at takeoff and climb, that to say the entire flight was just an indicator
of a dumb mistake of a careless pilot is a bit of an over-generalization
and Monday morning quarterbacking at its worst.

+1 on that 2nd sentence above!
- - - - - -

While I have zero time under the hood, i have no doubt that an ARHS would
have significantly changed my plan for the flight, but given the conditions
under the clouds (the LS-4 that was forced to land in the valley just after
me due to incredibly low ceilings) i don't know that it would have resulted
in any better of an outcome, and probably would have given me a false sense
of security and forced a more dangerous decision when the best option was
to indeed bail out.

+1 regarding anything tending to delay the bailout decision, once in IMC below
peak tops, regardless of having (or not) a moving map...no software out there
claiming to show "your personal cloud's base" that I know of. Delaying the
bailout decision once in peak-enveloping-IMC would simply have added another
link to the chain of decisions that so often lead to a fatal accident.
- - - - - -

...The greatest mistake in this flight
was the hurry up mentality and decision to try and dive through the VFR
hole.

So it seems from my seat in the peanut gallery... Sitting aloft may (would!)
have been genuinely worrisome as it clouded up beneath you, but clearance agl
is clearance agl; it's difficult to have too much of it when the ground
beneath you is vanishing, especially in something as "IMC benign" as a
large-deflection-landing-flap-equipped glider...
- - - - - -

I have no doubt in my mind that the outcome of my flight was pilot error at
18,000 feet, and little confidence that I would have used an artificial
horizon to my benefit and not to my demise if i had had one on board.

Well-said, IMO. Your "second guessing" seems spot-on from where I sit.

Some of the peanut gallery's thoughts expressed previously in this thread
remind me of the old saw about the difference between being *interested* in
something vs. being *committed* to something, you know, the one about the hen
having an interest in a ham and eggs breakfast, and the pig being committed.
The peanut gallery is interested; Joe PIC is committed.

Bob W.