Pete,

No, they should be fighting for their own territory. Unless you think the
USAF and USN should be able to go it alone, everywhere around the globe at
the same time.

Well, from the way the USAF runs specific operations in the last 15 years,
it appears that there is no chance of anything else happening.

The problem is this: the USA have an obligation to defend Taiwan (except
some US admin finds this is 0 and void), and they have a treaty with Japan
and South Korea. But, there is no way the USA to hit China first.
Consequently the first blow in such a scenario would obviously be delivered
by the Chinese; and in that case the USAF would not be in offensive, but on
defensive right from the start, flying from airfields that are thousands of
kms away from the battlefield. The USN could bring a carrier or two (even
more... of course, several months later) but these would have underdogs on
their decks, developed to strike places not defended by hundreds of Flankers
and AWACS....

Hm, perhaps you are right: the ROCAF would fight for US air superiority...
Obviously, there is no need for either the USAF or the USN to push for
additional developments in the air-to-air arena...


Kevin,
Let's see, the first F/A-22's have already entered into their operational
test and eval phase, and the 1st TFW is scheduled to get their first birds
in the 2005-06 timeframe IIRC. The PLAAF has, from what I have seen on the
sinodefence.com site, some 120 total Su-27/30 variants in service now (out
of a total of some 175 on order) from Russia and some 200 in the
construction pipeline in the PRC, and indicates that it is expected some
48
aircraft will be added to the 120 number in service by 2006--it would
appear
that your timeline may be a little off, unless you think all of those 200
or
so domestic production examples will be completed over the next year or
two
(and then they's still have to order another 25 or so Russian built
aircraft
just to meet your four hundred figure, much less acheive "over 400").

The following figures are from Chinese-language sources and as of 1 March
2004. They detail the number of aircraft in service, location and
assignement of Flankers in the PLAAF (and I hope you know that J-11 is the
Chinese designation for Su-27SKs, and that an increasing number of these is
meanwhile upgraded with new avionics package - foremost radars and
nav/attack systems).

- 1st Anshan MR, base: Shenyang, 1st AR: 26 J-11
- 2nd Suixi MR, base: Guangzhou, 4th AR: 26 Su-27
- 3rd Wuhu MR, base: Nanjing, 9th AR: 26 Su-30
- 6th Yingchaun MR, base: Lanzhou, 16 or 18 AR and 139 AR: 26 J-11 (and
increasing)
- 7th Beijing MR, base: near Beijing, 19/20/21 ARs: 26 J-11 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 18th Changsha MR, base: Guangzhou, 54th AR: 26 Su-30
- 19th Zhengzhou MR, base: Jinan 55/56/or 58 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 29th Quzhou MR, base: Nanjing 85/86 or 87 AR: 26 Su-27 (and increasing:
planned to become 78 by the end of 2005)
- 33rd Chongqing MR, base: Chengdu 97th AR: 38 Su-27
- 6th Naval MR, base: Dachang (Shanghai)16 or 17 AR: 18 Su-30 (and
increasing: planned to become over 36 by the end of 2005)
- Flight Test Center, Cangchou MR, Beijing: 18 Su-30

In total, the numbers should currently be as follows:
- J-11: 80 at present, no additional orders: all are going to be converted
to J-11A
- J-11A: 20+ at present, 80 J-11s to be converted, for an eventual total of
100
- Su-30MKK: 60+ at present, +20-30 additional airframes delivered per year
on average, for an eventual total of 80+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-30MK2: 20+ at present, at least 20 are on order, for an eventual total
of 40+ (at least) by the end of 2005
- Su-27SK: 50 at present
- Su-27UBK: 40 at present, 20 on order, for an eventual total of 60 by the
end of 2005

That's a total of 270 airframes in service and 140 on order, for a total of
430 by the end of 2005 - if China indeed discontinues the production of the
J-11.

Duh, sorry, but it appears I was actually wrong: the numbers are even higher
than I originally stated....

What?! You actually think they are going to field that number of J-10's
and
FC-1/JF-17's over the next couple of years? Holy crap, Batman--the FC-1
just
had its maiden rollout last year (and is intended to meet export market
requirements--no indication yet it will enter into PLAAF service)!

There is a similar problem here like in the case of the F-22: what is
reported is long since not current. The plane has obviously flown earlier
(perhaps only "few months" earlier than reported, but nevertheless), then it
was not only flown by Pakistani pilots already in 2003 (reports in the
specialized press indicate it was flown by the Pakistanis for the first time
only in April this year), but also by Iranians (in October last year).
Consequently, they are ahead of what it appears they are. BTW, the PLAAF
very much plans to have the JF-17 in service. For example a total of eight
should enter service by 2006 (remaining planes from the first batch are to
reach Pakistan by June or July that year) and three times this number should
form the first regiment one year later.

So, if we do not count J-10s, and China discontinues purchasing Su-27/30s
from Russia after those currently ordered are delivered by the end of the
next year (which is not only unlikely, but - according to Russian reports -
the PLAAF and the PLANAF want to acquire around 700 Flankers by 2007 or
2008), there are going to be a total of 430 Su-27/30s, 20+ JF-17s, and over
200 J-8II and (I forgot to mention them earlier JH-7s alone in service
by - let's say - 2007. That's a total of 650 fighters, most of which are
going to be compatible with the R-77, but a large number of which is going
to be armed with even better stuff of Chinese design (and not to talk about
all the Kh-31s, Kh-58s etc.).

ROCAF is by the time still going to have a fleet of roughly 200 F-16s and
Mirage 2000s, and the USAF is not going to have more than two squadrons of
F-15s at Okinawa, plus four USN Hornet squadrons and four USMC Hornet units
_in Japan_ (i.e. also thousands of kms away), for a total of 36 USAF and 96
USN/USMC fighters - "somewhere in the area". Oh, yes, and 20.000km+ away, in
CONUS, the 1st TFW is going to have something like 25 F-22s....

Hell, I'm really talking about very unrealistic things: this all are pure
dreams. Please, disregard my nonsence then you obviously need to feel better
by bashing me at any opportunity.


The J-10
has been a pretty slow program--last I heard they were still dicking
around
with which engine to mount in it, and there is some doubt as to whether or
not it will *ever* enter into major frontline service with either PLAN or
PLAAF units in anything other than nominal numbers.

I see you are first-class informed about the current condition of the J-10
Project, so I'm not going to disturb you with any such nonsence like citing
reports about acceleration of the J-10-production - from April this year.

That statement is even more preposterous than your assertion that the USN
is
involved in redefining the air-to-air arena to support fielding of the
F/A-22.

That's your own construction: feel free to continue developing it even
further.

That you have chosen to completely disregard the contribution of the ROCAF
may be convenient for your agenda, but it is a ludicrous oversight.

I only asked if the ROCAF is now to fight for the air superiority for the
USAF and the USN. You have my most humble apology if that was wrong to do.

In an environment where nothing short of at least a 1:6 exchange
ratio would be needed, but where anything beyond 1:3 is actually
unlikely
(at least according to calculations based on current data), not a very
brilliant prospect.

If the aforementioned numbers are representative of your "data", then
excuse
me for not buying into the validity of your assertion (which also
discounts
PLAAF losses due to ADA, SAM, and interdiction efforts, I presume).

Yeah! Hell, the Su-27/30 family has such a minimal combat range and
endurance, and China is not in a position to pick up the time of the fight.
For this alone - but especially because I am so obviously anti-US - it must
be that most of them are going to be destroyed in interdiction efforts or -
especially - shot down by SAMs.... ;-)))

But OK; feel yourself as "winners": obviously warning about such matters
is
considered here as "anti-US", so I guess somebody has first to hit the
wall
head-on... (it wouldn't be the first time, but at least that functions
for
sure).

You have to be able to present a credible case--you have fallen far short
thus far. Merely playing Chicken Little, without a decent set of
supporting
data, is not going to get you too far.

Consequently, I do not understand why are you still so upset? You are doing
so well: all my "data" is wrong, because I am a Chicken Little, and cannot
support it. I contradict myself all the time, express myself so that nobody
can understand it, and - most important of all, obviously - I am so much
anti-US that I must be wrong all the way - and you MUST be right (if for no
other reason then because of my signature). ;-))))


Tom Cooper
Freelance Aviation Journalist & Historian
Vienna, Austria

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Author:
Iran-Iraq War in the Air, 1980-1988:
http://www.acig.org/pg1/content.php

Iranian F-14 Tomcat Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S7875

Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...hp/title=S6585

African MiGs
http://www.acig.org/afmig/

Arab MiG-19 & MiG-21 Units in Combat
http://www.ospreypublishing.com/titl...=S6550~ser=COM

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