On Saturday, February 13, 2016 at 11:18:41 AM UTC-5, SoaringXCellence wrote:
if you download the trace, you can see a remarkably long 100 mile run
northward, below 4000 feet, with a -601 L/D for the last 76 miles

The owner was kind enough to invite me to fly while I was waiting for my own ArcusM. I don't think many flew XC this day because of low bases and perceived weak lift. First bit of the flight I circled excessively while getting used to the glider (in which I only had a few hours). After I settled down, I had the owner turn off the very badly-behaved varios (a bad vario is far worse than no vario, but this upset the owner). Managed to string together various lift lines and avoid circling most of the flight.

We had to cut the flight short because of OD and some heavy showers, but still managed 460km and 17% circling IIRC.

The point is, under these conditions MC theory does not apply.
Consequently, neither does MC-derived STF in lift.

Hope that helps,
Best Regards, Dave