Walt,

TopeMeteo was showing the cu field (and higher PFD associated with that to be further east. In fact until I saw the cu develop at the airport I was planning to angle North of Tulsa towards Ft Smaith Arkansas based in that forecast.

The Dr. Jack RAP was also showing that I would be in dry air. The NAM however seems to have reflected the cu reality the best.

Forecasting is tricky as you know. I did not spend a lot of time looking at the forecast due to time constraints. I was pretty busy the day before the flight getting the little things in order like charging batteries and figuring out where I put the total energy tube! Due to the early start we had a really early departure time from home so I only spent 15 minutes or so scanning the forecasts in the morning. By that point I already had everything in place to make the flight so I would just fly whatever weather presented itself.