On 4/8/2016 5:40 AM, Giaco wrote:
It's a good thing that we have finally defined "low save" for the sake of
argument, but I think it is equally important to define "risk," as the
original question was "what is Safe Enough" for the community.

Risk as the Air Force defines it at least, is the intersection of
probability of an event occurring and the consequences of that action. One
side of this debate is arguing that flying faster when thermalling low or
proper training reduces the probability of an accident occurring, while the
other is arguing that the consequences of doing that are dire...both of
these statements are entirely true, and are not mutually exclusive. This
conversation is just debating the two different axes of a risk matrix.

So if we are trying to actually answer Bob's initial question, the real
question is how much total risk is the soaring community willing to
accept?

Chart below for those who are unfamiliar with risk matrices:
http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_we...sk-matrix.html


Yeah - that's it! Accepting (avoidable, with
foreknowledge/self-education/"proper-mindset"/etc.) risk ignorantly or
unthinkingly or "merely hopefully" is (IMO) practically encouraging a bad
outcome. True whether we're talking about soaring or (say) investing in
stocks. Pre-licensing flight training is all about learning the basics of (to
cite just one of many topics) handling controls and not killing yourself due
to ignorance/improper-understanding, while post-licensing,
unencumbered-by-the-presence-of-a-licensed-instructor, solo, flight is (in one
way or another, i.e. actively vs. "unthinkingly") all about continuing that
process of self-education...while always remaining aware of where we are in
that Great Margins Bucket.

Bob W.