"Eric Pinnell" see my web site wrote in message
...
On Wed, 16 Jun 2004 23:28:32 +0100, (phil hunt)
wrote:

Why would they want one in Zimbabwe? maybe in 20 years time, but
China isn't in a position to have worldwide power projection yet.

Yeah, but they'd be in a position, for example, to stomp on third
world tin pot dictatorships anytime they want.

Hardly. Their reach leaves a lot to be desired; what kind of force do you
think China can deploy halfway around the world from their own borders?
Airpower? Nope, not hardly. Seapower? Gimme a break... no way. What you have
in China is sort of your typical 600 pound gorilla at your local zoo, with a
largely self-imposed wall keeping it from reaching beyond the limits of its
cage; tinpot dictators located outside that cage can thumb their nose at the
PRC anytime they want, risking only economic retribution at the worst (and
few tinpot dictators are in a position to be too awful worried about
economic sanctions from the PRC). If you see the PRC establishing some sort
of expeditionary base in Zimbabwe, think again--ain't a likely outcome.

Africa is a big mess, maybe China's looking to become a major
player.

The PRC is more worried about continuing to unravel its own mess, and
contingencies much closer to home, so seeing them become heavily involved in
Africa is a non-starter; this is not the era of Mao trying to export
communism in the Congo.

One has to wonder why Mugabe wants modern air power, since his
neighbors don't have much in the way of an air force, and air power
isn't all that useful if there's an armed rebellion.

Like most despots, he probably feels empowered by having shiny new toys. hen
again, his immediate southern neighbor is getting Gripens in the
not-too-distant future, too. Guess you forgot about South Africa bordering
him, eh?

Brooks



Eric Pinnell