On Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 8:21:06 AM UTC-8, Dan Marotta wrote:
Anyone with a basic knowledge of
probability would not make any assumption based on a set of three
occurrences.


The most important part of any statistical analysis in making sure you're picking the right data to analyze, and that it's representative of the things you're trying to measure. Rare, catastrophic events are easy to misunderstand or rationalize. You can't go at them assuming you know the answer already or you will most likely end up with the wrong analysis and/or wrong conclusion. Glider pilots seem to be particularly prone to that - sometimes right but never uncertain!

Andy Blackburn
9B