On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 5:02:41 PM UTC-8, Gregg Ballou wrote:
On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 1:46:05 AM UTC-5, wrote:
It's my understanding that there are now several rapid tests available that generate results in less than an hour, can be self-administered and have sensitivity of 95-98% and selectivity of 97-100% (false negative of 5% and false positive of 3%). Obviously you'd want to set up testing such that there is no cross-exposure of pilots, staff, etc. prior to getting a test result. You could give out little green "good to go" badges to everyone with a negative test. Seems like unless we can get everyone vaccinated, this is the main method available to provide higher confidence to everyone involved. A mixed combination of vaccinations and testing is a likely outcome given the pace of vaccinations and the age of pilots (older with higher priority to get a stick), volunteers, etc. With the new more infectious strain now circulating in the US it seems like some extra care would be in order. Early season contests are likely to face more concerns than later, but it's really too early to forecast much.

Things are still very much in flux, but at least the trajectory on vaccines and testing - if not hospitalizations - are headed in a positive direction.

Andy Blackburn
9B
As I understand the latest claims the vaccine does not prevent the vaccinated from getting or spreading covid just lessens their personal symptoms. Launching a fleet of vaccinated pilots is still potentially sending out angels of death upon the world.

I was just studying up on Moderna’s emergency authorization in USA (you can easily find on-line the authorization letter and the official FAQs sheet for recipients) and it is clear that they make no claims about the vaccinated person’s ability to transmit the virus. And indeed, of the ~15,000 who received the vaccine in the 60 day trial, a small number were subsequently infected (hence the 94% efficacy claim).

But the chief benefit of vaccination is apparently that none of them had a serious case. Interestingly, the efficacy rate in old people was lower (something like 86%, IIRC). In any event, the bottom line seems to be that, even for us old folks, the vaccine protects completely or at worst, results in a case with relatively mild symptoms. (Apparently the incidence of severe side effects is relatively low, but most recipients will have mild side effects for 1-3 days after each dose.)

But, it’s also clear that the trials done last year are very limited, and there are many unanswered questions, such as how long the immunity persists. The emergency authorization given for Moderna in December in USA is not “approval” from FDA is the usual sense. For some folks, the process itself will be an issue until more is known. To me, the risks seem reasonable & I’m scheduled for my first dose this week.