wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464

I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
Covid infections are increasing.

Here's the deal for me:
- we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
- we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
- we don't have a vaccine
- we don't have a treatment
- at 77, I am a member of the high risk group

I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
precautions.

If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of dying this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.

My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the actuarial tables
don't account for Covid-19.


--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1