On Feb 25, 7:50*am, "Dan Marotta" wrote:
The average VFR pilot has "178 seconds to
live" after an inadvertent trip into IMC, according to the Air Safety
Foundation.

Thread hijack!

That number (187 seconds) can be found all over the Internet and is
usually not questioned. But, where does it come from? Oh, Air Safety
Foundation. Again - where did they get it?

While, as we all know, 67.23% of all statistics are made up, this one
is not. Some digging uncovers a document titled "180-degree turn
experiment" by Leslie A. Bryan, Jesse W. Stonecipher and Karl Aron,
all from the University of Illinois.

The document describes an experiment, where non-instrument rated
pilots flew - or attempted to - in simulated instrument conditions.
All of them eventually lost control, and the average time was 178
seconds. Then, after some instruction all the test subjects managed to
"survive."

So far so good. That's consistent with what we have heard. So why am I
even writing this? Well, fortunately the document is nicely written
and tells us a lot about the experiment, choice of tests subjects and
equipment.
A couple of things stand out:

- They used a Bonanza C-35. The choice of a demanding aircraft was
intentional.
- The participants in the study were chosen to "have had a mininum of
experience in the Beechcraft Bonanza."
- They were not allowed to use IFR instruments. This is important, so
I am going to write it again: no artifical horizon, no turn
coordinator. They had "...equipment specified in Civil Air Regulation
43.30 for visual flight rules, plus a turn indicator."

So, what we have is a nice study that tells us absolutely _nothing_
about expected performance of a non-instrument rated pilot in IMC with
IFR instruments available.

Now, I am not trying to say that with AH we can all fly in clouds and
expect to come back unscratched. I am only pointing out that one piece
of information we thought was relevant, is not. The accident
statistics, on the other hand,
are what they are and remain relevant.

To anyone who considers installing AH as a "safety equipment" in a
glider, I suggest going up with an instructor in a Cessna and putting
foggles on. This, by the way, is what I did.

And do not worry. Spring is coming!

Bart