"Al Qaeda will be weighing its options for staging an attack against
the continental United States before the presidential elections in
November. Stratfor believes that an attack is possible, though not
certain -- and the decision likely will be made at the highest levels
of the organization, based on an ever-shifting calculus.


Several factors argue in favor of a major attack -- not the least of
which is al Qaeda's need and desire to show its Islamic audience that
the United States remains vulnerable. The organization, correctly or
otherwise, has interpreted the Madrid bombings as evidence that al
Qaeda can influence political change in a Western nation -- a feat
that would have exponential power if replicated in the United States.
Moreover, an attack that occurs during the heightened state of alert
in the United States would do much for al Qaeda's continued
credibility as well.


However, al Qaeda also has reasons to stay its hand. The Bush
presidency has been good for the jihadist cause: The president, viewed
internationally as a cowboy, has taken up al Qaeda's challenge to
invade Muslim nations and parts of the Middle East -- which in turn
serves the group's attempts to rally the Islamic world against a
single enemy. Additionally, al Qaeda uses its assets carefully, and
thus might choose not to burn operatives in a strike where political
change is an expected outcome.


The decision ultimately will hinge on whether it is better for al
Qaeda to allow the elections to run their course, without risking
valuable assets, or whether it would derive more benefit by trying to
demonstrate its own power within the United States. It is our
assessment that al Qaeda is prepared to carry out an attack in the
coming months, but will do so only if top leaders determine that
action is necessary to further the organization's goals."

http://www.stratfor.com/free-scripts... 20040707-442

Registration is required.

Bush has been so intent on taking care of the the interests of Oil
men, Israel and the House of Saud, he has played right into Al Qaeda's
hands.

Walt