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Old March 29th 20, 02:22 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Richard DalCanto
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Posts: 35
Default Soaring already DOA for the season???

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:19:43 PM UTC-6, Duster wrote:
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-...ay-11585088464


That author is assuming a very large denominator in order to make his conclusions, but there is plenty of data to show he is completely wrong. In the US they are only testing people with symptoms who think they have the virus, yet 90% come back negative. In Italy, if you look at health care workers that are exposed and test positive, the death rate is orders of magnitude higher than this idiot suggests. Many people seem to forget that there is a 2-4 week delay between diagnosis and death. So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.

Richard DalCanto MD, PhD