Vaughn wrote:
On 12/31/2012 6:50 PM, wrote:
in the expectation that huge improvements are just around
the corner is that the technology has been around a LONG time and is
not "emerging"; the huge improvements happened long ago and all that
can be expected now is minor improvements.


In a word, bull****.

There have been drastic improvements in lithium - ion battery technology
in recent years. That's why they have largely supplanted NIMH batteries
for new EV designs.

Nope, the "drastic improvements" in lithium-ion batteries were about 30
years ago when it was figured out how to make them commercially practical.

Since then there have been increamental improvements, such as cathodes
containing polyanions in about 1990, cathodes of phospho-olivines about
2002, better doping materials about the same time, and adding iron
phosphate nano particales to increase energy density around 2004.

All the improvements in lithium-ion batteries have for the most part
since then been in better control of the manufacturing process.

Will there be continuing significant improvement in coming years? I
imagine that my crystal ball is no better than yours, but my choice
would be to not put money against it.

It has already been about a decade since the last significant improvement.

There are some proposed manufacturing processes that could achieve 95%
of the theoretical maximum energy density, however currently they don't
work outside of a lab, i.e. in a factory.

There are numerous other battery chemistries that theoretically surpass
lithium-ion by a large margin, but again only in a lab.

If there are any drastic improvements in batteries, that is most likely
where it will be when some manufacturing engineer figures how to actually
make them in quantity.