(Regnirps) wrote in message ...
(ArtKramr) wrote:

It has nothing to do with any of that. The more missions you fly the worse the
odds of survival. How commited you are is irrelevant.

I agree, but only if yu look at the ensemble of flights. Each flight is not
more dangerous than the next. Every time yu survive, your chances start over on
the next mission. Same as rolling dice. Rolling five boxcars in a row doesn't
increase the odds that you won't on the 6th throw -- each throw is an
independent event. (This assumes a random risk which is an ideal that certainly
isn't true, as each mission is different. But how do you measuer how different?
Count the holes afterword?).

Mr Kramer was speaking (correctly) about cumulative probablity whereas
the other argument was correct about the probability per event.

If you throw the dice twenty times the probability that you'll throw
snake eyes is higher than if you only threw them 10 times BECAUSE
the probability of throwing snake eyes is the same on each roll.

--

FF