http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/security/ (Inside the Ring - Bill
Gertz)

New China fighter

A Chinese general is boasting that the People's Liberation Army Air
Force will soon fly a new advanced fighter that U.S. intelligence
projections had said would not be ready for 10 years. The new fifth-
generation Chinese fighter could be deployed as early as 2017 -- years
earlier than announced by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in
explaining his cancellation of the U.S. version of the fifth-
generation fighter, the F-22.

Gen. Ho Weirong, the deputy commander of the Chinese air force, told
Chinese state-run media on Monday that China's fifth-generation
fighter has been under intense development and will enter service in
the next eight to 10 years. Characteristics of this type of jet
include radar-evading stealth, supersonic cruise, super
maneuverability and the capability for short takeoffs.

The comments by the Chinese general represent an unusual disclosure by
the Chinese military, which rarely mentions future weapons systems.

The disclosure will likely fuel further debate in the United States
over the F-22, which was canceled in favor of the F-35 by Mr. Gates
earlier this year.

Mr. Gates said in a speech to the Economic Club of Chicago July 16
that the F-22 was canceled as part of considerations for the proper
mix of warplanes needed for a potential of "state-to-state conflict."

The F-35, despite development problems, was chosen over the F-22 for
cost reasons, but he noted that it was "clearly a capability that we
do need."

Mr. Gates stated in the speech that the F-22 was not needed because
China's air force would not have a comparable jet by 2020.

"Consider that by 2020, the United States is projected to have nearly
2,500 manned combat aircraft of all kinds," he said. "Of those, nearly
1,100 will be the most advanced fifth-generation F-35s and F-22s.
China, by contrast, is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft
by 2020. And by 2025, the gap only widens."

As a result, the United States would have about 1,700 advanced fifth-
generation fighters "versus a handful of comparable aircraft for the
Chinese. Nonetheless, some portray this scenario as a dire threat to
America's national security," Mr. Gates said.

A Pentagon spokesman did not reply to e-mails or telephone calls
seeking comment on the issue. A Defense Intelligence Agency spokesman
also did not respond to e-mails.

Richard Fisher, a China military-affairs specialist, said the reports
on a Chinese advanced fighter reflected "unprecedented transparency"
by China.

"One has to assume they have some confidence in their projections in
order to make them public," said Mr. Fisher, of the International
Assessment and Strategy Center. "So what is the Obama administration
going to do, ignore this and proceed with F-22 production termination,
to the detriment of U.S. security interests in Asia and beyond?"

According to defense specialists, the F-35 is comparable in some ways
to the F-22 but lacks what is called "supercruise" capability, a
feature that enables it to penetrate deep into enemy airspace, launch
its weapons and exit without using up all its fuel.

Mr. Fisher said he thinks that canceling F-22 production without a
better warplane in the pipeline is tantamount to unilateral
disarmament. "In Asia, this means a decline in American military
credibility and an increase in regional instability," he said.

Mr. Fisher also called on U.S. intelligence agencies to explain "what
appears to be a significant underestimation of Chinese capability."

"The PLA does not make it easy to read their future, but after
spending $40 billion a year on intelligence, it would be a real
scandal if they got this one wrong," he said.


DIA on China's new fighter

The Defense Intelligence Agency is sticking by its estimates of when
China will deploy a fifth-generation jet fighter after recent remarks
by a Chinese general that Beijing's most advanced jet could be fielded
by 2017 - years earlier than U.S. intelligence projections.

"We believe that first flight of a Chinese fifth-generation fighter
will occur in the next few years; however, we also believe it will
take about 10 years before the [People's Liberation Army] begins to
operationally deploy a fifth-generation fighter in meaningful
numbers," DIA spokesman Donald Black told Inside the Ring.

As reported in this space last week, Gen. He Weirong, the deputy
commander of the Chinese air force, told Chinese state-run media that
the new advanced jet would fly soon despite U.S. intelligence
projections that it will not be ready for combat for at least 10
years. (Gen. He was incorrectly identified as Gen. Ho Weirong last
week.)

Gen. He said the first jet could be deployed by 2017, and his remarks
have sparked renewed debate over whether to continue production of the
Pentagon's most advanced jet, the F-22. Production of the jet, beyond
187 more planes already in the pipeline, was effectively canceled by
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates earlier this year.

If deployed by 2017, the new advanced warplane would make China's jet
force more advanced than those of Britain, France and other Western
European statesaccording to military analysts.

Asked if U.S. projections about the new Chinese jet were incorrect,
Mr. Black said "the intelligence community has been warning of the
development of a Chinese fifth-generation fighter for several years."

"Intelligence estimates typically provide a range of dates associated
with operational deployment," he said. "Gen. He's comments are
generally consistent with these intelligence community estimates of
Chinese fifth-generation fighter operational deployment."

The United States is deploying large numbers of F-35 jets, which lack
some fifth-generation capabilities of the F-22, such as supercruise, a
propulsion system that allows the jet to fly longer distances, fire
its long-range weapons, and then exit without running out of fuel.

Mr. Gates said in July that U.S. projections of when China would
deploy its new fifth-generation jet, dubbed J-XX by some analysts,
indicate that the F-22 was not needed in large numbers because China
will not have large numbers of fifth-generation fighters by 2020.
Despite large numbers of F-35s and some F-22s, "China, by contrast, is
projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020. And by 2025,
the gap only widens," Mr. Gates said.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said he did not see "any
inconsistency in what the SecDef has said and the DIA assessment."

"In both cases, we don't see any significant fifth generation Chinese
fighter capability for next 10 years or so," Mr. Whitman said.

Richard Fisher, a China military-affairs specialist with the
International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the DIA's response
to the Chinese general's remarks were comforting.

"But one has to suspect that there is now light between recent DIA
assessments and what Secretary Gates said on July 16," Mr. Fisher
said. "Secretary Gates basically said that a Chinese fifth generation
fighter threat would not materialize well into the 2020s, while the
DIA seems to imply that their 'range' of assessments could accept this
happening closer to 2020."

For Mr. Fisher, the most important issue is not the quality of U.S.
intelligence analysis on Chinese weapons developments, but U.S.
leadership.

"The Obama administration convinced the Congress to deny U.S. forces a
critical capability, the F-22, in some part due to its assessment of
Chinese next-generation fighter capabilities, an assessment that may
not have been the 'consensus' within the intelligence community," he
said.

"Democracies require informed debate in order to survive. It is
appearing that the debate over the termination of F-22 production was
not sufficiently informed regarding emerging Chinese capabilities."

Mr. Fisher said some evidence indicates China may have several fifth-
generation fighter programs in train and could augment less capable
jets with upgrades and advances.

"I doubt that the Chinese are going to limit their force to 187 fifth-
generation air-superiority fighters," he said, referring to the
Pentagon's limited buy of F-22s.

A U.S. Air Force official involved in the F-35 development program
told Aviation Week that the Chinese will "have a difficult road if
their design is tied to the J-10," China's indigenous fourth-
generation fighter.

The officer said that significantly reducing the new aircraft's radar
cross-section will require more than stealth outer coatings. New
integrated design and shaping as well as coatings are needed, the
officer was quoted as saying in the magazine's Nov. 13 article on the
new Chinese jet.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman did not respond to an e-mail seeking
comment on the new jet.