On Mon, 23 Feb 2004 09:52:33 -0500, "Kevin Brooks"
wrote:


"Cub Driver" wrote in message
.. .

Yes we had barely enough. And it taxed the manpower. Now we
have that mission, Bosnia and Iraq. Plus a potential war with
China in the near future for control of the far East.

Well, we could shuck Bosnia any day. We don't have a dog in that
fight.

And we can't prepare for a war with China. We could not prevail in
such a war.

Really? While I agree the likelihood of such a conflict is not that great at
present (provided the PRC does not go stupid over Taiwan), I don't really
see how we "could not prevail" in a military conflict with the PRC. It is
not as if prevailing requires us to to put boots-on-the-ground in Beijing.
The PRC is quickly growing to rather like its foreign trade, and its people
are becoming more and more enamored of materialistic possessions. Turning
off their power grid, chunking up their communications systems, and denying
them any viable foreign trade (i.e., naval blockade) would seem to offer a
reasonable chance for us to "prevail" against them. I don't think the PRC
cares to risk finding out the hard way.

The Nov/Dec issue of Foreign Affairs focussed on the "New China" and
offered some rather interesting economic insights. Thinks like more
than 40,000 Nationalist Chinese companies having offices, plants,
branches on the mainland and more than 400,000 Nationalists working on
the mainland. The economic integration of the PRC and ROC is
considerable and despite the political posturing of the leadership,
probably dominant.

The final straw in the PRC coffin of political control will come when
the country is forced to open up for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
which they fought so strenuously to gain. With literally millions of
visitors from outside the Communist paradise, the leadership will be
forced to be on their best behavior and the masses will be exposed to
the magical world of democracy, free press, information and idea
exchange. "How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm, after they've seen
Paree???"

As for military force, China certainly has manpower and they
definitely have men under arms, but they don't have offensive force
projection capability. They don't have a blue-water navy, they don't
have a meaningful offensive air force and they don't have the
necessary airlift capability to fight a mobile war even within their
own borders.

We must get along with China, and China to prosper
must get along with the U.S. Fortunately both countries seem to
understand that.

I like the view posited by some national security wonk a couple of years
back: he described our strategy vis a vis the PRC as "congagement", with us
both containing and engaging the PRC. Engagement generally seems to be
working, but if the PRC *really* thought that the US could not confront them
militarily all bets would be off and they'd be a lot more antagonistic to
their neighbors.


Amazingly enough, it was the enlightened foreign policy of
Kissinger/Nixon with regard to China (hold the flames regarding other
errors of that administration), that opened the door to dialogue with
China. Precisely the policy of containing militarily without
threatening while engaging economically which inevitably undermines
the shortages and failures of central planning as compared to a free
market.

The poor Chinese leadership never saw K-Mart coming!



Ed Rasimus
Fighter Pilot (USAF-Ret)
"When Thunder Rolled"
Smithsonian Institution Press
ISBN #1-58834-103-8