OtisWinslow wrote:
I'd be more worried about one with 200 to 300 hours who's starting
to get over confident and push the envelope.


I spent a lot of time studying statistics in college and very few of
the more provocative analyses out there really leave much of an
impression. The data is simply not rich enough (that I've seen) to
support high confidence assertions that there is a "killing zone" at
this point. So we're stuck using common sense: inexperience kills
novice pilots, overconfidence and sloppiness kills experienced ones. On
the highway you are at the mercy of every dingbat around; in the air
it's all you. Statistics say that flying is more dangerous as a general
rule but I can understand why many pilots say they feel safer in the
air: depending on their habits they very likely are much of the time.

-cwk.