http://www.washingtontimes.com Inside the Ring
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China's stealth jet

The Pentagon is scrambling to explain what appears to be an
intelligence failure after Internet photos made public recently showed
a faster-than-estimated advance of China's new fifth-generation
warplane.

U.S. intelligence estimates previously concluded the jet, dubbed the
J-20, will not be deployed until 2020.

Vice Adm. David Dorsett, director of Naval Intelligence, told a group
of defense reporters on Wednesday that the new Chinese fighter program
was not a surprise, but "the speed at which they are making progress …
we underestimated."

"Across a broad array of weapons systems, they are making progress,"
the three-star admiral said.

Progress on the J-20 is among several other Chinese military
developments that U.S. intelligence agencies have been accused of
missing over the past decade. Others include the failure to detect a
new class of Chinese submarine called the Yuan and shortcomings
related to Beijing's long-range cruise missiles and a new anti-ship
ballistic missile.

Pentagon spokesman Marine Col. Dave Lapan confirmed to Inside the Ring
that recent photos of a new Chinese jet show "taxiing tests" on a
prototype aircraft apparently photographed by people who saw it pass
by.

"This is evidence that a fifth-generation fighter program is
proceeding," Col. Lapan said.

"However, progress appears to be uneven: Open-source reports show that
China has been seeking jet engines for its fourth-generation fighter
from Russia, indicating that they are still encountering some
difficulties in working toward fifth-generation capabilities," he
said.

The faster development of the J-20 was first discussed by Chinese Gen.
He Weirong, deputy commander of the Chinese air force last year. He
predicted deployment as earlier as 2017.

The jet is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 superfighter whose
production was canceled by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates after 187
jets were built. In scrapping the F-22, Mr. Gates stated publicly that
one reason for his decision was that the Chinese would not deploy a
comparable jet until 2020, thus more F-35 jets would be built instead
of the more capable F-22.

Richard Fisher, a military analyst with the International Assessment
and Strategy Center who was among the first to spot the J-20 photos
months ago, said the aircraft is manufactured by the Chengdu Aircraft
Co.

"Chengdu's goal is to beat the F-22 and then build their own F-35 when
the 18-ton thrust engine is ready. It is a full challenge to the U.S.
strategy for air power," Mr. Fisher said.

Both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations are to blame for not
continuing production of the F-22, which is needed if there is ever a
conflict with China over Taiwan, he said.

"Absent a better combat aircraft, this constitutes one of the most
serious U.S. intelligence and leadership failures since the end of the
Cold War," Mr. Fisher said.

Mr. Fisher said the images of the jet reveal that China is advancing
rapidly toward fielding a credible and competitive fifth-generation
fighter. The photos show a large fighter with radar-evading stealth
features, an advanced electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and
"supercruise" — the ability to fly at supersonic speed for long
distances using less fuel, he said.

"With refueling, this fighter can carry the fight out to Guam," Mr.
Fisher said.

As for the Pentagon's claim that the Chinese are having problems
developing an advanced engine for the jet, Mr. Fisher said China is
ground-testing a new, more powerful jet engine and, as a result, could
deploy the new jet by 2017.

"If the United States wishes to remain an Asian power capable of
deterring Chinese aggression, or preventing future generations from
becoming victims of China's dictates, it is essential that an improved
version of the F-22 be put into crash development, as well as putting
a sixth-generation fighter into formal development," Mr. Fisher said.