On 3 Sep 2004 09:13:45 -0700, (Fred the Red
Shirt) wrote:

Ed Rasimus wrote in message . ..
On 2 Sep 2004 10:59:49 -0700, (Fred the Red
Shirt) wrote:


Does this not imply that Linebacker II accomplished nothing worthwhile?


I've got several hundred POW friends that might like to discuss that
with you.


Your friends might have been home for Christmas 1972 had the SVN
agreed to the accords in October 1972. The SVN continued to
hold out foir awhile even AFTER the NVN returned to the table.
The seminal event that brought them home was the agreement to
the accords by the SVN.

That's a pretty selective interpretation of history. The fact is that
bombing north of 20 degrees was halted in late October when there was
agreement to sign. In late November, the agreement had not been signed
by the North and they walked out of Paris. Establishing a "rooster
crows--sun rises" syllogism based on SVN actions is a stretch. Nothing
happens in a vacuum.

Had the SVN relented befor Linbacker II AND the NVN reneged then
the efficacy of Linbacker II would be pretty well established.
As it is, we can only speculate.

You can speculate, I was a participant, and the POWs were on-scene
observers. I can find a direct causative relationship between getting
the crap kicked out of them for eleven days and crying "uncle", then
signing and in very short order releasing the guys.

Various historians have viewed Linebacker II and reached different
conclusions. Eschmann seemed to see the campaign as very effective.
Clodfelter drew more subtle conclusions and leaned toward the classic
"bombing alone doesn't win wars" answer. Michel, doing the most recent
work and being the first with major participation with the NVN in his
research, ascribed losses to bureaucratic infighting, ascribed victory
to both sides by their own interpretation, and agreed with most that
there was a direct linkage between the bombing campaign and the
conclusion of the war.



Ed Rasimus
Fighter Pilot (USAF-Ret)
"When Thunder Rolled"
"Phantom Flights, Bangkok Nights"
Both from Smithsonian Books
***www.thunderchief.org