Subject: Bush Flew Fighter Jets During Vietnam
From: (Regnirps)
Date: 7/15/2004 8:01 AM Pacific Standard Time
Message-id:

(ArtKramr) wrote:

It has nothing to do with any of that. The more missions you fly the worse
the
odds of survival. How commited you are is irrelevant.

I agree, but only if yu look at the ensemble of flights. Each flight is not
more dangerous than the next. Every time yu survive, your chances start over
on
the next mission. Same as rolling dice. Rolling five boxcars in a row doesn't
increase the odds that you won't on the 6th throw -- each throw is an
independent event. (This assumes a random risk which is an ideal that
certainly
isn't true, as each mission is different. But how do you measuer how
different?
Count the holes afterword?).

-- Charlie Springer



True. But if you roll the same number 5 times in row a crap table, note how
everyone is shocked and the house will change the dice.The difference between
a mission and a crap table is that at the crap table a bad roll doesn't result
in death. And a mixture of targets results in a mixture of odds depending on
defenses. So not all missions are equal like dice rolls. But other than
that......



Arthur Kramer
344th BG 494th BS
England, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany
Visit my WW II B-26 website at:
http://www.coastcomp.com/artkramer