"Kevin Brooks" wrote in message
. ..

"The Raven" wrote in message
...
"Kevin Brooks" wrote in message
.. .

"The Raven" wrote in message
...
We all know that the X-35 won the JSF contest which is now in the
strategic
development phase as the F-35. At the time the competition winner
was
announced (LM) I wondered why Boeing would scrap their whole concept
rather
than push forward with it.

I suspect some of their X-32 technology is making its way into their
UCAV
conceptual vehicle.

No doubt a lot of the technology will be used but the platform itself
was
pretty impressive despite not winning the JSF contest.

Not really--that was why it lost to the LMCO bid.

It was less capable but the platform was impressive in several technological
areas.

It was a dog. And it was
danged ugly, with a capital U, to boot--danged thing looked like a
pregnant
cow with wings strapped on its back. Hell, it made the old EE Lightning
look
like a true beauty, and that is saying something (not knocking the
Lightning, which was a capable and fine aircraft for its day, but it was
not
looking to win any beauty contests).

I didn't know that the main criteria for selecting any piece of military
hardware was that it had to look good.





For various political reasons Boeing could have pushed forward with
the
X-32
into other non-JSF (and friendly) markets. Imagine the competition
that
potentially could be generated from an F32 vs F35 sale to foreign
nations?
Imagines LM's concern that potential partners may decide it could be
more
cost effective to go with an F32? Imagine the potential (albeit
unlikely)
of
F32 going up against F35? Imagine the possibility of a second
JSF-like
aircraft capability for the US to tap into if need be?

Imagine the cost of development. No company has the resources required
to
develop a first-line combat aircraft today independent of governmental
financing.

Hence look for governments outside the US that are willing to do it. I'm
not
suggesting the F32 would end up with the exact same capability and
fitout
as
planned but it could be built with the commitment of several
governments.

All of which would be much happier just piggybacking on the massive R&D
funding that the USG is placing in the winning F-35 program. Note that a
lot
of other nations HAVE ponied up R&D money to participate in this program,
and none of them have come forth saying, "Hey, can we buy into that Boeing
dog instead?"

The Boeing platform wasn't a "dog" otherwise it would never have gotten as
far as it did into the competition.

The reason no-one has considered the X32 is simply because Boeing hasn't
proceded with it, for whatever reasons. Had Boeing said "We're going ahead
anyway with a revised design that we believe will offer similar capabilities
for a lower cost" then some may have expressed interest in finding out what
this may be.

That said, the US is footing the majority of the bill.

As major buyer, who also has a vested interest in LM selling heaps, you'd
expect that.

Note
that the consortium of major European nations developing the Eurofighter
have had their hands full funding that program (and now have the added
challenge of funding the A-400);

A good point.

given that situation, how likely is it that
you could find any group of "other" friendly nations that would be willing
to come up with the many billions of dollars required to make the X-32
viable? Not very, IMO.

Naturally Boeing would have to offer something very attractive in the form
of capability and cost to garner enough financial interest to go ahead. Who
funds Boeings development of any commercial aircraft today?


When that governmental financing goes down, pace of development
also takes a nosedive--take the Rafale as an example.

Sure.



For Boeing, excluding any political over-rides, they could have had
a
market
for their aircraft that competed directly against the F35 and/or
eroded
some
of it's competitors market. Additionally, it could upset the
supposed
superiority of the F35 by offering something (possibly) similar in
capability to the F35 than anything else.

Ain't gonna happen without governmental R&D support.

There are more governments in the world than the US government.

And outside of Europe how many (in the "friendly to the US category") are
in
a financial position to fork over the $30 billion or more required to make
the X-32 a real F-32?

Is it really 30B or is that the forecast for the F35?

Japan springs to mind...but they are already fully
committed to their own F-2 project.

There are lots of asian nations looking for replacements, most friendly.
However, it would obviously need some careful thought and serious
committment.

Recall that one of the reasons Boeing
came up short in this competition was that their X-32 was apparently quite
a
bit further from being a workable fighter than the competing LMCO X-35
was;
Boeing had already had to admit that some *major* redesign would be
required
based upon flight test results of the X-32.

Has Boeing has ever produced a fighter aircraft?

In comparison, the F-35 has so
far undergone relatively little external change from the X-35 article
(some
increased dimensions, i.e., a slightly larger cross section of the
fuselage
behind the cockpit IIRC) during the period before the design outline was
frozen a year or more ago.

Fair enough, the X35 is superior to the X32 but I wouldn't rule out that the
X32 could not be developed into something very capable. The crux of the X32
development is, who would fund it and whether enough could be built to make
it viable. I think it's a shame to see the X32 be discontinued merely
because it didn't meet a specific specification yet shows promise.




So the question is, could there have economically been a market for
the
F32
outside the US and would the US government have allowed Boeing to
produce
such an aircraft?

No and yes (but a meaningless yes as it just was not a possible
outcome).

Why not possible. Not all aircraft developments hinge on funding from
Uncle
Sam.

Look, get the "anything said has to relate to some kind of superiority
complex regarding the US" chip off your shoulder, OK?

Sorry, I don't have a chip on my shoulder about the US. I was responding to
your use of the word "government" implying the US government. I took it that
you ruled out all other governments as a possible source of funding.

The fact of the matter
is that (a) the X-35 was the better platform, by most accounts;

Agreed

(b) the X-32
had some significant design flaws requiring major redesign before it was
ready to move into the fighter realm; and

I don't know if there were significant design flaws but I appreciate that a
prototype is a prototype and not expected to be perfect. Obviously, the X32
didn't perform as well as teh X35. Some redesign may be necessary but I
don't think the aircraft is inherently bad. If it was so bad, it would never
have made it into the competition or remained there until the end.

(c) the plain fact of the matter
is that there are not any nations out there that both have the available
capital to manage such an expensive proposition and are not ALREADY
committed to other major development projects, and who fall into that
vital
"friendly to the US" category.

I concede it's a tough ask but it isn't impossible.

All of that adds up to this being a
completely unworkable proposition.

I not so certain it's completely unworkable. Difficult yes, viable maybe.
Certainly it would be better than someone embarking on another all new
aircraft design.





My initial assumption is that the US government wouldn't allow
Boeing
to
do
such for reasons including: protecting LM's interests, ensuring that
other
nations didn't end up with similar capabilities, and to protect US
"security".

Then that would be an incorrect assumption. The fact is that the
development
costs for such advanced aircraft are extremely expensive, and the US
could
only afford to back one horse, just as it could only afford to field
one
of
those horses itself.

To the spec they had set, probably. Without those constraints it *may*
be
possible to bring the X-32 into production but obviously in a somewhat
different form (which may be at a lesser cost than the proposed F-32).

Hardly. You keep forgetting that the X-32 was a lot further from being an
F-32 than the X-35 was from being the F-35.

I agree it's less mature but that doesn't mean it's so bad it should be
scrapped.

Even doing all of the expensive
redesign to make the F-32 a reality would still leave you with an aircraft
that is inferior to the LMCO product,

Depends on the final capability requirements, which may not be the same as
the F35. Where not even certain of what all the final capabilities of the
F35 will be. Just because it doesn't beat an F35 doesn't mean it's inferior.

and you'd have dumped beaucoup bucks
into making *that* a reality.

I'm not suggesting that the X32 be developed into a direct competitor with a
100% match in capability to the F35. The suggestion is that the X32
development not be wasted and that it could be developed into something
viable. Not everyone wants the full JSF capability or can afford it. The X32
has the potentional to fill that market.

Not a good way of doing business, even at the
governmental level.


There's obviously a market for this type of aircraft or the competition
wouldn't have taken place.

No, the competition took place because we wanted to select the best
competitor for further development.

Which was decided by the government and their end users who had specific
requirements in mind. These requirements do not necessarily reflect those of
everyone else but, they may come close.

The fact that two companies competed to
the point that they did had nothing to do with the size of the market

Obviously it did. No use bidding to produce and aircraft which has such a
limited market the customer won't be able to afford it and you wont be able
to sell it elsewhere.

--it
could have just as well been handled on the basis of selecting the best
proposal from one of the firms without having developed flight-capable
demonstrators, but that would not have been wise given that the basic
aircraft is asked to do quite a lot more than any other current or planned
fighter project under development anywhere in the world (demanding the
same
basic aircraft design be capable of conventional land based use, CTOL
carrier use, and STOVL was quite a tall order).

Several points here.

Why would anyone go to this effort if there was no return in it for them? If
you knew you had no chance of winning you'd save your R&D budget and bow out
of the competition.

You state that the basic aircraft was set requirements that no other
aircraft currently has. If those requirements are so valuable then there is
potentially a market for more than one offering. Sure, the market may be
limited in size but buyers will always prefer two options over one. Hence,
an F32 could provide an alternative even allowing that it may be less capabl
e than an F35. Of course, to do this an F32 would need to be attractive in
some other way (eg. affordability, trading off expensive capabilities not
required by most customers - VTOL).


Who's to say there isn't other markets than the
current JSF partner nations? I'm sure others would like something
similar
and, combined together, could probably generate sufficient funds to see
the
X32 developed into something.

OK, so you come up with a list of these economically able nations who (a)
are on our good guys list,

I suggested a few but there would be others.

(b) are not already committed to other expensive
R&D efforts, and

Australia, Israel, Taiwan (?) for starters.

(c) are willing to dump insane amounts of capital towards
the fielding of an aircraft that is going to in the end undoubtedly cost
more per unit (when all of that additional R&D is factored in) than the
F-35

You forget to factor in the existing R&D has already been paid for, which
reduces the cost somewhat.

(which not only required less redesign but also enjoys the largesse of
Uncle
Sugar handling the majority of the R&D funding, and enjoys a large base
order from the US which drives the unit cost down)

Yes, it's not going to be easy to generate the funding but that doesn't mean
it's as impossible as you suggest. Aircraft have been designed before with
the US funding it and I don't dispute that the benefit of a large base
order.

and is a less capable
platform than the F-35 is to boot.

Less capable than the F35 means nothing if you don't want all the
capabilities of an F35.

If you find any, let me know; I can get
them some prime beachfront property in Nevada for a small finders fee, and
if they are gullible enough to support this proposal they will surely find
that real estate very attractive.


--
The Raven
http://www.80scartoons.co.uk/batfinkquote.mp3
** President of the ozemail.* and uunet.* NG's
** since August 15th 2000.