....from the november 2004 nat geo archives:

By Shelley Sperry

Jim Campbell waited a little longer than usual this year to predict who
would win the U.S. presidential election. With the Republican Party
convention held just before Labor Day, the University at Buffalo, SUNY
political scientist tweaked his model a bit to account for George W.
Bush receiving a post-convention bounce in the Labor Day Gallup Poll,
Campbell's most important factor in predicting the November vote. In
the end, he created post-convention and pre-convention models, and both
say that Bush will win. Campbell does not take into account the
presidential debates. Using pre-convention polling numbers, Campbell
says Bush wins 52.8 percent of the popular vote for the Republican and
Democratic parties. Post-convention numbers predict he wins 53.8
percent. But what about the all-important electoral college vote? "If
my forecast is close, within two points," Campbell declares, "Bush will
clearly win the electoral vote as well."

Campbell created his current forecasting model in 1990 using two kinds
of predictors: public opinion and economic growth. "The Labor Day
Gallup Poll of likely voters accounts for about two-thirds of the
model," he explains. That poll showed Bush ahead of Democrat John Kerry
by 7 percentage points. But Campbell believes we have to read polls
along with other factors to put them in context. "Historically, there
is a relationship between the economy and people's voting patterns." So
the second factor in the model is the gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rate in the second quarter of the election year. This year's
rate was 3.3 percent, and, according to Campbell, anything roughly over
3 percent favors the incumbent.

In early September, Campbell and colleagues who specialize in analyzing
elections and public opinion took part in a lively roundtable in
Chicago, where they discussed their 2004 election predictions. Of seven
diverse models, six forecasted Bush would win in November-and the
seventh saw another election "too close to call."

Although Democrats may see these as gloomy projections, they can take
heart from a similar group of prognosticators who picked Al Gore as the
winner of the 2000 election. That year Campbell came closest to
predicting the popular vote outcome, saying Gore would win 52.8
percent. Gore did win the popular vote, with 50.3 percent, but lost the
electoral college contest and the presidency. None of the pundits
predicted the election would be a virtual tie, ultimately settled by
the Supreme Court.

For more information about elections, polls, and predictions, Campbell
recommends the sources listed below.

Related Links
Update for The American Campaign
wings.buffalo.edu/polsci/faculty_and_research/campbell/campbell.htm
James E. Campbell provides an update to his book, The American
Campaign, which extends through the 2000 presidential election.


....now YOU know, and I know that James E. Campbell is not PsychoBoy,
despite Ms. Sperry's unfortunate truncation of his first name. BUT, we
all know that reality and Captain Zoom are complete strangers, so there
is little doubt that he would, somehow, some way, try to make the best
of this mention in geo.

al