On Feb 12, 11:24*am, wrote:
If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
three days down the road. *Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
helpful. *In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). *The usual souces of
weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.

I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. *Does anyone know
a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? *Is
there such a site ?

Thanks,
Evan

The science is just not good enough for the weather guessers to
predict clouds that well. On the other hand, it's worth remembering
icing conditions don't exist in every cloud. If it's well below
freezing, unless you're flying under a warm front, you're not likely
to get ice. Our practice is to avoid clouds at altitudes where temps
are in the 0 to -5 degrees C range, and we pay very close attention to
pilot reports of icing along our route. If the freezing level is a
couple of thousand feet above the surface if you do get airframe ice
you can descend out of icing conditions. In the Northeast we find
about 10% of our planned flights were canceled because of WX --
embedded thunderstorms, icing, that sort of thing. It means 90% or so
went as planned. If you give yourself a day's float time the chances
are very good you'll be able to make the trip. Unflyable weather just
does not hang around that long.