"Jimbob" wrote in message
...
Hi all.

Then I started reading up on the new sport pilot rules. I don't see a
rush of sport pilots in the near future, unless this thing gets pushed
by AOPA/EAA big time. Doubt it. I think they view it as a way to
bring ultralight pilots into the fold. However, this LSA thing
appears to have some serious promise for current private pilots.

I'm a little more optimistic.

The single biggest problem (IMHO) in GA right now is student pilot
attrition. IIRC, half of students who show up for a second lesson drop out
before soloing, half of those who solo drop out before getting their
certificate, or somehting like that.

A good friend of mine is a classic case study. He graduated 1 year behind me
in college. I started working in journalism, he in software. He took a
couple lessons and decided he wanted to do it, but got busy and didn't
follow through. Fast forward three years, I'm in software too and he's
working for me (don't ask me how I managed that one). Anyway, I started
working on my license and had it in about a year. He started, and since our
office was near an airport and he had a very understanding boss, he very
quickly soloed and then got signed off for unsupervised. Well, things got
busy again, and it was well over a year ago since he last flew, and I
wouldn't be surprised if another year passes before he flies again.

Anyway, here's a guy in his twenties, making great money, drives a $40,000
german car, and is enthused, but simply ran out of time. With Sport Pilot,
he'd likely have gotten his license (he'd put in about 35 hours when he
stopped) or been within spitting distance. Now he can rent a plane and take
a friend for a joyride on the weekend, which is all most PPLs around here do
anyway. This is a lot more likely to keep someone in the fold than not.

From what I am told, it seems that LSA can meet this need nicely. The
speeds are within range.

You'll have a lot more fun with the Miata in your garage than with the BMW
M3 you stare at in the dealer's lot.

much less than $80K. However, these prices are using FAA certified
engines and instruments.

Actually, getting rid of certification of airframes is much more important,
since there are far more airframes than there are engines. You'll have 15
different airplanes, all using a Rotax 912, so Bombardier *can* spread costs
pretty widely. Ditto instruments, which aren't that big a deal anyway. What
the hell do you need a glass panel in a sportplane for anyway? The most fun
I ever had was in a PA-18 in Alaska, and if I looked at anything besides the
tach and ASI, the instructor in back yelled at me.

The only downside I can see is that the bottom may drop out of the
Cessna 152/172 - Piper 140 market.

Others have convinced me that the 150/152/Tomahawk market is in much greater
danger than C-172/PA-28-140 planes. The fact that I own a 172 might have
somehting to do with it, but I think the slide is going to be slow enough
that no one's going to get killed.

And of course if Dateline runs a story about those new "dangerous
uncertified" airplanes.

Like those dangerous exploding trucks they did a story on some years ago? Or
those dangerous charter helicopters they tried to rent while carrying a bag
full of box cutters?

Actually, Dateline's ratings are in the s---er along with all the newsmags.
There's serious talk inside the nets about replacing them with reality shows
that cost less to produce.

-cwk.