"Jim Thomas" wrote in message
m...

At the risk of sounding like a curmudgeon (which I probably am), I
need to ask this question:

What is the big deal about Rutan's suborbital flight? Why is this such
a history-making achievement?

The regulars on this newsgroup might recognize me from earlier posts
as a former USAF and contractor test pilot. No one appreciates the
significance (and joy) of doing something in aviation that hasn't been
done before more than I do.

That said, and given that the flight was a piece of technical
brilliance and a demonstration of courage by Mr. Melville, what was
the historic value?

It proved that private industry could put a man into space. The hype
is that this heralds the impending commercial use of space, and of
commercial space exploration. Let's put that into perspective.

First, I contend that nearly all the important explorations on earth
were financed by governments. Columbus' voyage (Queen of Spain) and
Lewis and Clark (US Government) come to mind, never mind the space
program. There doesn't seem to be anything intrinsically bad about
that. By and large, explorations and experiments that are designed to
help all mankind require more money than the commercial world can
afford. And don't necessarily generate a profit for anyone.

Second, sending a man and two dummies into a very short suborbital
trajectory is nowhere near the problem of orbiting people and their
life support systems for extended periods. Which is what commercial
space use will require. Reentry from orbit, for example, isn't even a
factor in the present programs.

Third. who will finance such things? Right now, we have, if I read the
news correctly, a $20 million investment to win a $10 million prize.
Not a great return. I contend that American businesses, being
reasonable, will not invest money without a reasonable expectation of
a profit somewhere down the line. What is the income from a
three-person ballistic trajectory? There are only so many people who
will pay several thousand dollars for such a thrill.

I would like nothing better than to see this space achievement lead to
bigger and better things. Without government money, I just don't see
it happening.


Oh oh. You're in for it now.