On Wed, 17 Dec 2003 21:18:19 -0800, Erik Max Francis wrote:
phil hunt wrote:

What would be sensible strategies/weapons for a middle-ranking
country to employ if it thought it is likely to be involved in a war
against the USA or other Western countries, say in the next 10
years?

Something you don't bring up, but which is very important in being able
to analyze your question, is exactly what goal the opponent would have.
Would it be to invade the USA (taking the USA as the obvious archetype
of the scenario)? Would it be to thwart USA forces engaged in some
existing conflict on your soil until the war becomes so unpopular at
home that they are forced to withdraw? Would it be to goad them into a
conflict to do the same? What is the smaller force trying to
accomplish?

This is a good question, as what you're trying to do affects what
you need to do to do it.

Let's consider possible adversaries, and what their aims might be.

Iran.
- deter US invasion of their country
- prevent US or Israeli air raids against their country (LCCMs won't
really do this, but other asymetric techniques might be able to)
- in the event of US military action, be able to inflict
unacceptable losses on US warships in the area
- deter Israeli air raids by the ability to strike back against
Israeli cities (updated V1 idea; modern V1s would be much more
accurate and could e.g. hit targets of opportunity)


Saudi Arabia.
- same as Iran, really


China.
- ability to cow other regional powers by superior force
- ability to successfully launch a land invasion against North
Korea, Russia/Siberia, Kazakhstan, or Vietnam
- naval invasion against Taiwan
- ability to destroy hostile (either regional power or US) shipping
in seas near China
- ability to intimidate Japan or other reasonable powers with
V1-style weapons


India and Pakistan
- use against each other; western powers might conceivably join in
- V1-type city bombing


Algeria or Libya
- attack Europe or Israel with V1-type weapons; use threat of the
above to prevent the west interferihng in their countries
- control Mediterranean


South Africa
Is not likely to attack anyone, but might want to maintain force
dominance compared to a coalition of regional powers against it
(e.g. Zimbabwe + Libya + Angola). ZA also has a largish weapons
industry with a record of making decent wepaons on a tight budget,
so may well manufacture LCCMs for export.


Indonesia
- war with Australia, whicvh inevitably would have a naval
component, so anti-shipping use. Also maybe anti-city use


Singapore
- to maintain a defense posture of "we're not going to attack
anyone, but if you attack us..."


Taiwan
- aerial bombardment of China. How many people would die if the
3 Gorges Dam was destroyed?


South Korea
- to deter China. Also for export.


Other countries that might develop LCCMs might include Brasil,
Argentina, Chile (balance of power against each other), and Thailand
and Malaysia (BoP). In all these countries cases, becasue they're
fun toys to play with that are cheap. (More formally: because the
general staffs and defence ministers of these nations will gain
status by being involved in developing what are seen as cutting-edge
high technology weapons, and it won't put too big a hole in the
defense budget to do it).


Russia and Ukraine might develop them for export potential.

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