In article P68Ud.515993$8l.368458@pd7tw1no,
"Ron McKinnon" wrote:

as the career
progresses, the probability of 'an occurrence sometime
(in the remainder of) one's career diminishes from
that value.

Yes, but only because N is lower. Whatever N is, after every flight N
is 1 less than it was before.

But 'the number of trials in my career' is moot
in the first place,

That is arguable. As a precise number you're probably right. But in
broad brushstrokes you can decide, e.g. never to try something, to try
something once and then never again, to try something a dozen times in
your lifetime, to do something once a month, once a week, once a day, or
multiple times a day. Each of these choices entails a monotonically
increasing risk of encountering certain kinds of disasters over your
lifetime.

My personal risk tolerance works out something like this:

Things I'm not willing to try even once: heroin, motorcycle racing
Things I'm willing to try once in my lifetime and never again: going
into space (assuming I ever have the opportunity)
Things I'll do a dozen times: aerobatics
Once a month (on average): skiing
Once a week: Flying GA aircraft
Once a day: getting out of bed in the morning :-)
Multiple times a day: driving on the freeway, eating sushi :-)

rg