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Old April 9th 20, 10:21 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Duster[_2_]
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Default What have we learned from all this?

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 3:20:08 PM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:
Oops, the German study said "0,37 percent", in US speak, that's 0.37%
or 0.0037.
Dan, 5J


Dan; You're smarter than you think. 0.37 percent is indeed 0.37%, .0037 is the multiple.
However, most readers have misinterpreted the half-completed study in Germany. The interim results use both the "swab test" which reveals those presently infected plus the "serological blood test" which reveals those that had been infected but were mostly asymptomatic. Not surprising, those that were no longer testing positive were 7 times more prevalent than those confirmed to be currently infected. So, the "0.37%" figure uses the combined number and does not represent the % lethality of those infected. Another misquote by the OP was that Germany has a 0.3% lethality figure. They currently have a around a 2% lethality. It is expected that when the serologic testing is complete world-wide, the infection rate for this virus will be quite impressive, and the "lethality" measured using both IGG and PCR tests will go lower. Don't interpret that to mean the virus is less lethal, it means many more of us caught it than suffered with it.