On Sun, 27 Jun 2004 14:57:40 GMT, Richard Lamb
wrote:

As a (very!) few people have mentioned over the years,
sucessful aircraft design is all about fullfilling the
stated mission objectives.

I think Ron W's post gave clear indication that SS1
WON'T scale up for an orbital ship.

That is a completely different and much more demanding
mission objective, requiring a completely different design.

But I have purest faith that if Burt bites into that one
it WILL be a success, and it will likely be completely different
from anything we've see so far.

Absolutely...if it can be done, Burt is the man who can do it.

We do have to remember the other half of the SpaceShipOne equation, though.
Instead of calling it the "Scaled SpaceShipOne," I should refer to it as
the "Scaled/Allen SpaceShipOne." Whether Rutan moves on to orbital craft
probably depends on whether Paul Allen is willing to pay for it.

Unless? The lightest simplest cheapest solution to reentry is
soemthing we did before and moved away from. Like a blunt body
heat shield, maybe?

I think there's been enough development of high-temperature materials since
the 1970s that a simpler, probably cheaper, heat-shield material is
available. The Shuttle's tiles are still marvels, but we can do better
than that. And no one is better than Burt Rutan at taking experimental
concepts and turning them into operational hardware.

Plus, one thing I didn't mention in my Magnum Opus: There's no reason for
Rutan to re-invent the initial stages needed to boost a small manned
spacecraft into orbit. If we posit a ~3000-pound weight for an orbiter,
there are "low cost" launch vehicles available off-the-shelf (or nearly so)
that can put it into orbit.

Unfortunately, these are "low cost" only in relation to conventional launch
boosters. We're still talking $12-$25M a ride. The beauty of SpaceShipOne
is that the suborbital flight burns only fuel. Space tourism is cheap, on
that basis. But an orbital system will probably push it back into the
Millionaire's club.

Man, what I'd give to be on THAT team...

I've been watching the mailbox for a job offer every day. :-)

But...in the words of Obie Wan Kenobi, "There is another." Paul Allen is
NOT the only Seattle millionaire funding private spacecraft. About a year
ago, the Seattle Times had an article about how Amazon.com founder Jeff
Bezos had quietly started his *own* space company. Buddy of mine
(propulsion specialist) even had a job offer from them....

Keep watching the skies!

Ron Wanttaja